"Read 'em and weep" (was the weeping to be by Perdue or Taylor?), Part II -- The Big Guy says I wish you hadn't done that Bobby.
A 10-19-04 post entitled "Read 'em and weep. And we're not talking about a poker hand here, but a new ajc poll. -- Perdue vulnerable, very vulnerable to Democratic challengers" reports on the recent Zogby poll showing that if the 2006 election were held today, Gov. Sonny Perdue would be in a statistical dead heat with either Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor or Secretary of State Cathy Cox.
The post noted that UGA's Charles Bullock said the poll numbers support his theory that Cox could be the stronger challenger for Perdue because she has the ability to draw female voters from both parties. In her position as secretary of state, Cox has been able to "stay out of the direct line of partisan fire," leaving voters with a more positive view of her, the post quoting Bullock as saying.
The linked ajc article in my post had a quote (not included in my post) from a Cobb County Perdue resident who intends to vote for Perdue saying he doesn't know much about Cox, but considers Taylor too aligned with Democrats.
Even at this early point with the governor's race two years hence, learning about such theories and perceptions is important, very important. Not necessarily to the rank and file Democrats mind you, but to the Democratic Party faithful and activists, as they look ahead to the governor's race while most of the general public is only thinking about (politically speaking) the upcoming general election.
The ajc article reporting Bullock's theory that Cox might a stronger challenger than Taylor caused me to recall a 9-02-04 PI saying that despite people being "worried about Cathy Cox and the Democratic race for governor in 2006," they shouldn't. This PI noted:
"Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor already has raised $1 million and change. He picks regular, headline-making fights with Gov. Sonny Perdue. He's got a strong core of support among the African-American wing of the party.
"Last year, Georgia was one of a number of states that settled a conflict-of-interest lawsuit with 10 giant national investment firms. Georgia got 3 percent of a cut based on population.
"Cox is secretary of state and thus has a November election to run. Raising money now would be unseemly.
"What's a woman to do?
"You make yourself the star of a $3 million, prime-time TV advertising campaign that warns Georgia's elderly against scamsters after their retirement money."
"So don't worry about Cathy Cox. She's doing just fine," the 9-02-04 PI concludes.
Cox has got to be loving this free publicity, not just the free TV stuff but the ajc reporting that Bullock considers her sex, situation and other factors to make her the stronger challenger to Perdue between herself and the Big Guy.
"Still," Bill Shipp wrote back in October, "the preseason odds favor Taylor as the first Democrat in modern times to try to bring down an incumbent Republican Georgia governor." (See 10-07-04 post.)
We recall that Taylor has contributed $500,000 to the party this year, probably the biggest amount the Party has ever received from one person. The money out of his lieutenant governor's campaign account because he can't transfer his leftover funds to his 2006 bid to unseat. State law doesn't allow candidates to raise money for one race and use it for another.
(Federal law is different, as we saw this summer when Majette collected a sizable campaign chest from contributors who assumed when they gave that she would run for her Congressional seat; instead, she used the funds to run for the U.S. Senate.)
Taylor collected more than $700,000 in his lieutenant governor's account last year, despite the fact that it was well known he would likely run for governor, not re-election.
Some observers say the big-money donation is meant to ensure that the Party leadership supports his primary race in 2006, when he could face Cox. (Back in May when the ajc reported this donation to the Party, it also reported that Taylor's staff said he would not comment on the contributions. Neither would Cox, the ajc article reported, along with informing us that Cox has contributed $5,000 to the party this year).
But who does the Democratic Party's "leadership" include? Certainly Bobby Kahn, Chairman of the state Democratic Party, wouldn't you think? And of course it includes the person to whom Kahn, for practical purposes, answers, the Big Guy himself.
("Taylor also has become the unofficial standard-bearer for state Democrats," Bill Shipp wrote in October. And in an earlier post dated 10-07-04, I noted that while "I agree [with Bill Shipp that] Taylor's being a Perdue critic has contributed to making him the unofficial standard-bearer for the Party, . . . I think he would be regardless of such activity just because he is the highest ranking elected Democrat. The Governor has always been the unofficial head of our Party, until we didn't have one in 2002 for the first time in 130 years. Who else would and did assume such slot.)
Because of the roles of Taylor and Kahn in our Party structure, I was somewhat surprised to receive an email yesterday from the Democratic Party of Georgia that -- after giving a link to the ajc article discussed in yesterday's post saying Perdue is vulnerable to a challenge from either Tayor or Cox -- went on to post much a discussion Tom Crawford of Capitol Impact had to say about the poll (Tom Crawford sometimes appears on The Georgia Gang when one of the regulars is not there, as does Jim Galloway of the PI).
For those of you who might not know, Capitol Impact is a subscription service taken by many state government officials. I have had more than one such official tell me that his daily routine consists of first reading the PI and then Capitol Impact. (Okay, if you insist, I will tell you what one recently called and said. Now he has added this blog to his morning reading. Thanks you know who.)
But for this circulation of Capitol Impact by the state Party Headquarters, many Democrats would not have known what Tom Crawford had to say about the Zogby poll with respect to Cathy Cox. While certainly Cathy Cox would have done her best to let as many of her mailing list know what Mr. Crawford said, I doubt the dissemination would have been as broad among the Party faithful.
Excerpts from the email that is taken from Capitol Impact:
"Those poll numbers no doubt will be closely parsed by Democratic operatives and disputed by Republican Party officials, who contend that their own polls show Perdue is still a very popular governor.
"Political junkies who want to do their own analysis can find some interesting numbers in the county-by-county totals from the 2002 general election, when Perdue, Taylor and Cox were all elected to their current terms in office.
"Perdue, of course, upset incumbent Roy Barnes in that election, while Cox and Taylor won relatively easy statewide races against under-funded Republican opponents.
"One of the keys to the 2006 governor's race will be how many moderate Republicans the Democratic nominee, whether it's Taylor or Cox, can peel away from the GOP incumbent.
"If you look at the predominantly Republican counties in the metro Atlanta area - Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Douglas, Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Rockdale, Fayette and Coweta - you'll see that Cox drew more votes in her race in each of those counties than Taylor did in his race. In fact, Cox's vote totals consistently ran 20 percent or more ahead of Taylor's in those counties. Cox even had more votes in Cobb County (92,881) than Perdue did (92,684)."
Thus the title of this post: "Read 'em and weep" (was the weeping to be by Perdue or Taylor?), Part II -- The Big Guy says I wouldn't have done that."
In "Read 'em and weep" Part I, the weeping was done by Perdue. But from the above words by Tom Crawford about the poll, Taylor may be doing some weeping himself. And that might not be all.
I can't help but feel that when the Big Guy first learned the UGA's Bullock's theory that Cox has a better shot at challenging Perdue than himself, he probably winced.
But if he winced at the foregoing, when he received the same email I did from the state Democratic Party -- the very Party of which he is the standard-bearer, official or unofficial -- circulating the above about Cox possibly being able to better attract moderate Republicans and the 2002 election as written in the Capitol Impact, he was way beyond wincing mode. He went into a full Bush scowl.
Bobby, here's to hoping the trip to the woodshed wasn't too painful (and that he didn't use of the ax handles that Zell may have given him that Zell got from Lester).
And of course Cathy Cox is enjoying being the subject of these articles, emails and additional free publicity immensely. Her campaign wasted no time in getting an email out itself yesterday saying, in part:
"For the reasons Tom Crawford points out below, Cathy would be the strongest candidate against Governor Perdue. These results bode well for Cathy's future; to be tied with the incumbent governor two years before the election when she has not even declared her candidacy is quite a feat and shows great potential for her in the governor's race."
Once we get Nov. 2 behind us (and any subsequent court rulings on who the winner is), isn't 2006 going to be fun!!
The post noted that UGA's Charles Bullock said the poll numbers support his theory that Cox could be the stronger challenger for Perdue because she has the ability to draw female voters from both parties. In her position as secretary of state, Cox has been able to "stay out of the direct line of partisan fire," leaving voters with a more positive view of her, the post quoting Bullock as saying.
The linked ajc article in my post had a quote (not included in my post) from a Cobb County Perdue resident who intends to vote for Perdue saying he doesn't know much about Cox, but considers Taylor too aligned with Democrats.
Even at this early point with the governor's race two years hence, learning about such theories and perceptions is important, very important. Not necessarily to the rank and file Democrats mind you, but to the Democratic Party faithful and activists, as they look ahead to the governor's race while most of the general public is only thinking about (politically speaking) the upcoming general election.
The ajc article reporting Bullock's theory that Cox might a stronger challenger than Taylor caused me to recall a 9-02-04 PI saying that despite people being "worried about Cathy Cox and the Democratic race for governor in 2006," they shouldn't. This PI noted:
"Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor already has raised $1 million and change. He picks regular, headline-making fights with Gov. Sonny Perdue. He's got a strong core of support among the African-American wing of the party.
"Last year, Georgia was one of a number of states that settled a conflict-of-interest lawsuit with 10 giant national investment firms. Georgia got 3 percent of a cut based on population.
"Cox is secretary of state and thus has a November election to run. Raising money now would be unseemly.
"What's a woman to do?
"You make yourself the star of a $3 million, prime-time TV advertising campaign that warns Georgia's elderly against scamsters after their retirement money."
"So don't worry about Cathy Cox. She's doing just fine," the 9-02-04 PI concludes.
Cox has got to be loving this free publicity, not just the free TV stuff but the ajc reporting that Bullock considers her sex, situation and other factors to make her the stronger challenger to Perdue between herself and the Big Guy.
"Still," Bill Shipp wrote back in October, "the preseason odds favor Taylor as the first Democrat in modern times to try to bring down an incumbent Republican Georgia governor." (See 10-07-04 post.)
We recall that Taylor has contributed $500,000 to the party this year, probably the biggest amount the Party has ever received from one person. The money out of his lieutenant governor's campaign account because he can't transfer his leftover funds to his 2006 bid to unseat. State law doesn't allow candidates to raise money for one race and use it for another.
(Federal law is different, as we saw this summer when Majette collected a sizable campaign chest from contributors who assumed when they gave that she would run for her Congressional seat; instead, she used the funds to run for the U.S. Senate.)
Taylor collected more than $700,000 in his lieutenant governor's account last year, despite the fact that it was well known he would likely run for governor, not re-election.
Some observers say the big-money donation is meant to ensure that the Party leadership supports his primary race in 2006, when he could face Cox. (Back in May when the ajc reported this donation to the Party, it also reported that Taylor's staff said he would not comment on the contributions. Neither would Cox, the ajc article reported, along with informing us that Cox has contributed $5,000 to the party this year).
But who does the Democratic Party's "leadership" include? Certainly Bobby Kahn, Chairman of the state Democratic Party, wouldn't you think? And of course it includes the person to whom Kahn, for practical purposes, answers, the Big Guy himself.
("Taylor also has become the unofficial standard-bearer for state Democrats," Bill Shipp wrote in October. And in an earlier post dated 10-07-04, I noted that while "I agree [with Bill Shipp that] Taylor's being a Perdue critic has contributed to making him the unofficial standard-bearer for the Party, . . . I think he would be regardless of such activity just because he is the highest ranking elected Democrat. The Governor has always been the unofficial head of our Party, until we didn't have one in 2002 for the first time in 130 years. Who else would and did assume such slot.)
Because of the roles of Taylor and Kahn in our Party structure, I was somewhat surprised to receive an email yesterday from the Democratic Party of Georgia that -- after giving a link to the ajc article discussed in yesterday's post saying Perdue is vulnerable to a challenge from either Tayor or Cox -- went on to post much a discussion Tom Crawford of Capitol Impact had to say about the poll (Tom Crawford sometimes appears on The Georgia Gang when one of the regulars is not there, as does Jim Galloway of the PI).
For those of you who might not know, Capitol Impact is a subscription service taken by many state government officials. I have had more than one such official tell me that his daily routine consists of first reading the PI and then Capitol Impact. (Okay, if you insist, I will tell you what one recently called and said. Now he has added this blog to his morning reading. Thanks you know who.)
But for this circulation of Capitol Impact by the state Party Headquarters, many Democrats would not have known what Tom Crawford had to say about the Zogby poll with respect to Cathy Cox. While certainly Cathy Cox would have done her best to let as many of her mailing list know what Mr. Crawford said, I doubt the dissemination would have been as broad among the Party faithful.
Excerpts from the email that is taken from Capitol Impact:
"Those poll numbers no doubt will be closely parsed by Democratic operatives and disputed by Republican Party officials, who contend that their own polls show Perdue is still a very popular governor.
"Political junkies who want to do their own analysis can find some interesting numbers in the county-by-county totals from the 2002 general election, when Perdue, Taylor and Cox were all elected to their current terms in office.
"Perdue, of course, upset incumbent Roy Barnes in that election, while Cox and Taylor won relatively easy statewide races against under-funded Republican opponents.
"One of the keys to the 2006 governor's race will be how many moderate Republicans the Democratic nominee, whether it's Taylor or Cox, can peel away from the GOP incumbent.
"If you look at the predominantly Republican counties in the metro Atlanta area - Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Douglas, Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Rockdale, Fayette and Coweta - you'll see that Cox drew more votes in her race in each of those counties than Taylor did in his race. In fact, Cox's vote totals consistently ran 20 percent or more ahead of Taylor's in those counties. Cox even had more votes in Cobb County (92,881) than Perdue did (92,684)."
Thus the title of this post: "Read 'em and weep" (was the weeping to be by Perdue or Taylor?), Part II -- The Big Guy says I wouldn't have done that."
In "Read 'em and weep" Part I, the weeping was done by Perdue. But from the above words by Tom Crawford about the poll, Taylor may be doing some weeping himself. And that might not be all.
I can't help but feel that when the Big Guy first learned the UGA's Bullock's theory that Cox has a better shot at challenging Perdue than himself, he probably winced.
But if he winced at the foregoing, when he received the same email I did from the state Democratic Party -- the very Party of which he is the standard-bearer, official or unofficial -- circulating the above about Cox possibly being able to better attract moderate Republicans and the 2002 election as written in the Capitol Impact, he was way beyond wincing mode. He went into a full Bush scowl.
Bobby, here's to hoping the trip to the woodshed wasn't too painful (and that he didn't use of the ax handles that Zell may have given him that Zell got from Lester).
And of course Cathy Cox is enjoying being the subject of these articles, emails and additional free publicity immensely. Her campaign wasted no time in getting an email out itself yesterday saying, in part:
"For the reasons Tom Crawford points out below, Cathy would be the strongest candidate against Governor Perdue. These results bode well for Cathy's future; to be tied with the incumbent governor two years before the election when she has not even declared her candidacy is quite a feat and shows great potential for her in the governor's race."
Once we get Nov. 2 behind us (and any subsequent court rulings on who the winner is), isn't 2006 going to be fun!!
posted by Sid Cottingham | 5:58 AM
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