Agreeing and disagreeing with Dean. -- The U.S. Senate race in Georgia.

On my website I posted the following this summer:

Cottingham stated when he qualified he pledged to wage an effective campaign and become a household name during the months of June and July, he did so because this year’s U.S. Senate race is the most important race in 2004 for the Democratic Party of Georgia.

This was because a Democratic victory would go a long way in righting the Democratic Party’s ship and, in the process, change the perception around the state and nation that the Party has lost some of its luster.

Further, such a victory would restore the Party’s proud history in Georgia and help make the infamous day November 5, 2002, a date that would soon be forgotten.

I am hopeful that by July 20 certain members of our Party’s leadership -- who long ago conceded the U.S. Senate race in November to the Republicans and decided to emphasize the important task of retaking the state Senate and gaining seats in the state House -- will see the light and recognize that if we elect the right U.S. Senate candidate on July 20, not only will this help our Party attain these important state objectives in November, but also will greatly enhance our Party’s chances of retaking the Governor’s Office in 2006.

Believe me folks, I am not being critical of certain Party leaders. They are my friends whom I have campaigned for and with across the state and supported financially in past elections.

But they sincerely do not believe that our Party has a chance to win in November, and thus want to preserve Party resources for the noted important state objectives. Additionally, before President Bush began slipping so badly in the polls, they feared a strong U.S. Senate candidate might bring the President to Georgia to campaign for the Republican nominee, and thus hurt the Party’s state objectives.
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This week in his column Bill Shipp wrote:

We're not getting campaign visits. Bush's and Kerry's TV advertising focuses on Toledo, Ohio, not Macon, Ga.

That is too bad. A more innovative and daring campaign brain trust (or a non-New England presidential Democrat) might have paid more attention to Dixie.

After all, we are the second fastest-growing region in the country. Since the 2000 election, the South has gained 17 electoral votes, all at the expense of the industrial North and the Midwest, where the campaigns are concentrated. Georgia is the ninth-largest state, meaning many of those former "swing state" residents have decided to swing our way.

The national Democratic Party has forfeited our electoral votes to the GOP almost without a murmur.

But wait a minute. Put Bush and Kerry aside for a moment. Think local. And state. The political pot simmers in the down-ballot contests.

Freshman Democratic Congresswoman Denise Majette hopes for a tidal wave of new minority voters to propel her into the U.S. Senate. GOP Congressman Johnny Isakson is the easy favorite. But the margin of victory could be surprisingly close.

[N]no matter whether Bush or Kerry wins the presidential race, a Yalie blue blood will occupy the White House. As long as no party wins more than 60 seats in the Senate, the status quo is virtually guaranteed. No radical from the left or right is likely to win confirmation to the Supreme Court. History may determine that the Senate makeup turned out to be a most important element of the 2004 national election. History may determine that the Senate makeup turned out to be a most important element of the 2004 national election.
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The title of this post is, in part, "Agreeing and disagreeing with Dean."

While my emphasis from the above quote was on the U.S. Senate race in Georgia being the most important race in 2004 for the Democratic Party of Georgiam, while the Dean's is the U.S. Senate race with respect to the national situation, we both agree on one thing.

This year's U.S. Senate race is important, very important.

The "disagreeing" part: The Dean opines that the margin of victory for Isakson over Majette could be surprisingly close. One of the reasons for this thinking was discussed in prior posts and on the Georgia Gang this past Sunday -- the huge increase in voter registration by black voters.

My prediction. While "close" and "surprisingly close" are relative terms, my call is that it won't be close. I go with conventional thinking -- that is, earlier "conventional thinking" prior to this update.

The race between Isakson and Majette will not be close. Also, Isakson will garner more votes than the cowboy.