Since we've been talking about voting/not voting for Perdue in 2006, let's go ahead and talk seriously about 2006 politics -- The Dean weighs in.

This week Bill Shipp writes:

Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor has become the great bright hope of rural Georgia. He appears the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2006. But don't count out Secretary of State Cathy Cox, another star from south of the Gnat Line. She could be on her way to becoming the Peach State's first woman chief executive.

I wish I could write that you first read these guarded forecasts here. But that would be wrong.

Although the 2004 election is only three weeks away, the mythic Georgia chapter of Pundits International is already well into handicapping the statewide election of 2006. To suggest that such talk is premature is an understatement.

Before getting around to discussing in earnest distant gubernatorial politics, Georgians will select a new U.S. senator, reconstitute the state's congressional delegation and elect state legislators, an appeals court judge and a public utilities commissioner — and endure at least one more General Assembly session.

Of course, Georgia also will participate in the upcoming presidential election. The Peach State, once regarded as a key province in presidential frays, has been written off by the national parties as a dead-cinch George Bush state and thus receives minimal attention.

Perhaps the state's being shrugged off explains the eagerness of state pols to look beyond 2004 to the next two-year election cycle.

Many partisan leaders believe Democratic Lt. Gov. Taylor has developed into the most effective critic of what some regard as the bumbling policies of Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue. As such, Taylor also has become the unofficial standard-bearer for state Democrats.

[I agree Taylor's being a Perdue critic has contributed to making him the unofficial standard-bearer for the Party, but I think he would be regardless of such activity just because he is the highest ranking elected Democrat. The Governor has always been the unofficial head of our Party, until we didn't have one in 2002 for the first time in 130 years. Who else would and did assume such slot.]

Whether Taylor remains the party's alpha figure is uncertain.

Democratic Secretary of State Cathy Cox is becoming increasingly visible as a crusader against predators on the poor and old. She owes her higher profile to a series of public-service TV spots warning against con artists.

Still, the preseason odds favor Taylor as the first Democrat in modern times to try to bring down an incumbent Republican Georgia governor.

Elected to the state Senate in 1987, Taylor quickly rose in legislative ranks to become Gov. Zell Miller's state Senate floor leader and a key adviser to the governor. Taylor managed some of Miller's toughest legislative fights, including his "two-strikes-and-out" anti-crime package and a failed attempt to change the Georgia flag.

In 1998, Georgians elected Albany resident Taylor as lieutenant governor. Re-elected easily in 2002 despite stunning Democratic defeats for senator and governor, Taylor immediately became a target of the newly empowered GOP.

Leaders in the elephant-dominated Senate stripped him of much of his authority as lieutenant governor. The loss of real power in presiding over the Senate seemed to energize "the big guy," as his supporters refer to him. He came out swinging as an articulate adversary of Perdue in dealing with education, Medicaid and several other big-ticket budget issues. He has hammered repeatedly for cutbacks in the university system and characterized the governor as a reactionary foe of better public schools.

Taylor is expected to have abundant funds for a statewide campaign, not to mention formidable south Georgia support transcending party lines. A report already making the rounds at the Capitol is that Sen. Zell Miller, the national Democrats' harshest in-house critic, may support Taylor in his bid for governor.

Miller owes much of his success as governor to Taylor's help in the Legislature and the Taylor family's generous financial assistance in Miller's election campaigns.

However, as anyone who follows Georgia politics knows, trying to outline a scenario for an election 25 months away is impossible. Anything can happen (and probably will) before Election Day 2006.

For instance, where is it written, except in the minds of Taylor's brain trust, that the lieutenant governor's for-sure opponent will be Gov. Perdue?

As Republicans gain strength in the state, the GOP's primary elections become more competitive. A Republican challenger for the Republican governor is not out of the question.

A possible expensive primary contest between Taylor and Cox for the nomination for governor could cloud the Democrats' hopes for a comeback in a state trending heavily Republican. Also, never underestimate the power of a sitting governor, regardless of party.

Back to the present. The marquee event on Nov. 2 will be the election of Republican Johnny Isakson, Democrat Denise Majette or Libertarian Allen Buckley to succeed Miller as senator.

Most polls and the smart money indicate Isakson's vote totals will run slightly behind President Bush's as the Marietta congressman triumphs in the Senate contest. A word of caution: Most polls and the smart money have been wrong before. And voter complacency can be a killer factor in any seemingly sure-thing election.