Poll Shows Tie; Concerns Cited on Both Rivals. -- The Alchemists at Work on Kerry.

[Note from the publisher of Cracker Squire: You might have noticed that the source of several posts has been a bit stale with regard to being a few days old since late last week. I have been digging out and will be for the rest of the week. Still, when I catch my breath, there are a couple of posts that will be made from material from such time that are that particularly time sensitive. The following is hot off the press, and could not wait.]

Based on a just published New York Times/CBS News poll, I think we have a new President. Agaian I must qualify as I did after Debate No. 2 by saying I think this is the case even with capturing or killing bin Laden, but not another major screwup as Kerry did with the Mary Cheney comment.

(Some who don't defend the comment might want to call it a gaffe, but right or wrong, I think of a gaffe as sort of unintended, a slipup. As noted in comment 2 that I posted to my with Kerry's Mary Cheney comment, it was a screwup where he did not appreciate that the reward could not possibly be worth the risk. For dern sure, it probably wasn't accidental.

As as noted in Comment 2 to my post yesterday titled "Leaping lizards!! Not again!! Earlier Sen. John Flipflop Kerry said he believes homosexuals make a choice. -- Mary Cheney, Part II (part I being the earlier post entitled "The comment heard round the world by moms (soccer, terror and otherwise). -- Sen. Kerry speaks for Mary Cheney"), I said:

"But one must weigh risk and reward. Here the former greatly outweighted the latter, it seems to me. But one thing for thing for sure that is reflected in the comment, it was not accidental. A senior adviser to the President said 'it wasn't just accidental that he did it - he's not an accidental guy.'")

Why do I say this. There is plenty of bad news in the poll for Kerry, stuff we have written about and why we -- strike that -- I have always wondered how he got to be out nominee, especially with Sen. Edwards available.

But the good news is that the bad news is worse for Bush. Some of the stuff Kerry has been tossing for a long time is finally sticking because Kerry has not had to defend himself and his record, letting Bush get a free ride on a disaster term but domestically and abroad.

This prediction goes against a belief that I have. We are scared of the unknown and the unfamiliar; we will go with a certain and a given rather than an uncertainty.

But in this case, I think a handful of voters will sway the election by saying, I can't handle anymore of the known, the given. If he recognized how what he has done was a mistake, maybe, but here, taking the cowboy at his word, he has not erred.

Excerpts:

Two weeks before Election Day, voters hold a sharply critical view of President Bush's record in office, but they have strong reservations about Senator John Kerry, leaving the race in a tie, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Bush's job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure. A majority of voters said that they disapproved of the way Mr. Bush had managed the economy and the war in Iraq, and - echoing a refrain of Mr. Kerry's - that his tax cuts had favored the wealthy. Voters said that Mr. Kerry would do a better job of preserving Social Security, creating jobs and ending the war in Iraq.

But a majority of Americans continue to see Mr. Kerry as an untrustworthy politician who will say what he thinks people want to hear. More than half of respondents said they considered him liberal, reflecting a dominant line of attack by Mr. Bush this fall.

The poll found the two candidates each drawing 46 percent of all registered voters in a head-to-head race. Among likely voters in a two-way race, Mr. Bush has 47 percent, with 46 percent for Mr. Kerry.

Mr. Kerry is in better shape than he was when the debates began, when the Times/CBS News poll found him trailing Mr. Bush, 42 percent to 50 percent. But this poll and others suggest that he is having difficulty turning strong discontent with the state of the country into support for his candidacy.

The Times/CBS News poll also suggested an area of vulnerability for Republicans in Congress. Only 38 percent of the poll's respondents said they approved of the way Congress was doing its job; 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate, compared with 38 percent who said they would vote Republican.

And as of now, voters have a warmer view of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party: 52 percent said they had a favorable view of the Democrats, compared with 47 for Republicans.

In a three-way race including Ralph Nader, Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry have 45 percent each among registered voters, with Mr. Nader drawing 2 percent. Among likely voters, Mr. Bush has 47 percent to Mr. Kerry's 45 percent, with Mr. Nader drawing 2 percent.

Mr. Bush is now perceived less favorably than he was earlier this month, which is probably a reflection of the fact that he has fiercely attacked Mr. Kerry recently, erasing an advantage he had had over Mr. Kerry. Typically, candidates who go on the attack pay a price in seeing their own negative ratings rise.

Mr. Bush is now viewed unfavorably by 45 percent of respondents, compared with 43 percent who view him favorably. Mr. Kerry is now viewed unfavorably by 44 percent of the respondents, compared with 39 percent who view him favorably.

The poll underlined the extent to which Mr. Bush has succeeded in raising doubts about Mr. Kerry. In addition to the perception of Mr. Kerry as a liberal, 60 percent said that he told people what he thought they wanted to hear, rather than what he believed.

[I didn't know Bush got credit for this; I give Kerry full credit myself.]

"I don't trust Kerry a bit," said Robert Brorein, 74, a Republican who said he did not like Mr. Bush but could not bring himself to vote for Mr. Kerry. "I don't trust the way he talks. He doesn't give straight answers. He comes across as being slick. He's good with words, but I just don't believe him.''

On Iraq, Americans no longer see the war as Mr. Bush does. A majority now say the war is either a minor part of the war on terrorism or no part at all.

In addition, Mr. Kerry has established himself as the candidate who would make health care more affordable, and as the candidate who better understands the needs and problems of average voters.

"The economy is a disaster and I don't think George Bush even realizes it," said Sally Sullivan, 61, a retired legal secretary and an independent voter from New Hampshire. "Middle class jobs are just flowing out of this country and the jobs that are being created are being created in the service industry for 15, 16, and 17 thousand dollars a year. I just think George Bush has lost touch with reality completely as far as the economy goes."
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As bad as some of the above sounds, it is progress. We have had to play with the cards they or we dealt ourselves, and again, the above represents progress, real progress. One of my attorney friends says you can't make chicken salad out of chicken s___. I used to agree with him. But hey, we're doing it.