State GOP believes that at least in Georgia the political bedrock remains as red as the dirt. Don't be so quick to count on it.

Today's AJC has an article entitled "COUNTDOWN 2008: Georgia GOP bucks national fears." The article notes in part:

The national Republican Party is in a collective funk, but that despair does not extend to the Georgia GOP, party activists and leaders said as they prepare for the state party convention this weekend in Columbus.

Republican leaders in Congress fret that they could lose dozens of seats in this fall's general election, the party's national campaign committees are woefully underfunded compared to Democratic counterparts and national polls continue to show presumptive Republican nominee John McCain behind either Democratic rival.

But in Georgia, the political bedrock remains as red as the dirt.

Or, at least, that's what Georgia Republicans hope.

[S]tate Republicans have reasons to be excited. Among them:

> [1] Georgia Democrats' candidate recruitment for legislative races was lacking, despite record interest and turnout from the presidential primary and a national wave of bad news for Republicans.

> [2] Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss has millions in the bank and has worked hard to put last year's ugliness over immigration behind him.

> [3] None of the Democrats running to challenge Chambliss has raised the money necessary to seriously challenge Chambliss.

> [4] McCain's Georgia team appears to have pulled together a state party that was fractured after former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Feb. 5 presidential primary here.

I inserted the four numbers in brackets for purposes of commenting on them.

With regard to [1], this is unfortunately very true. As Bill Shipp recently observed:

As for the Democrats, an examination of their candidate recruitment efforts leads to no other conclusion than that they have run up the white flag in their attempt to regain control of Peach State politics. Despite big talk from party leaders, Democratic qualifying is the weakest it has ever been.

And Tom Crawford of Capitol Impact noted:

You have probably heard from the pundits and the presidential candidates that this is supposed to be a year of “change” in politics. If that’s true, then Georgia’s political community obviously didn’t get the memo.

It looks like a large majority of legislative seats will remain under the control of the party that now holds them because no candidates were put up by the opposing party in those districts.

In the House of Representatives, there are no Democrats running in 81 districts where Republicans now hold seats - and you only need 91 seats to have majority control.

For Democrats, the inability to field opponents for so many Republican incumbents has to be frustrating because of past statements from the party leadership. When she was elected state chairwoman last year, Jane Kidd vowed she would rebuild the Democratic Party organization in all 159 counties and challenge as many Republican officeholders as possible.

Party activists had hoped that the presidential candidacy of Barack Obama, who has stoked the enthusiasm of Democratic voters nationally, would help Democrats make inroads in Republican districts.

[2] is also true.

[3] is also true. Sen. Chambliss will win and will win big, regardless of who becomes the Democratic Party's nominee.

But on [4] I would not be so quick to to say that in Georgia the political bedrock remains as red as ever. Do I believe Georgia will turn blue this year? No, but it is going to be more blue -- a whole lot more blue -- than it has been since Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992.

And unlike my idol Bill Shipp, I do believe Obama will become the 44th president of the United States.

God Bless America, and God Bless the Democratic Party.