(1) Speculation about the Senate delay in passing the redistricting plan that apparently was wrong. (2) Could Rep. Kingston challenge Gov. Perdue?

On 3-19-05 Brandon Larrabee of Morris News Service shared some further details of that status of the redistricting plan that passed the House earlier this month. As we know, on Tuesday the upper chamber was scheduled to take up a new map for Georgia's 13 congressional districts, but last-minute confusion about the numbers used to draw the plan forced Senate leaders to pull the plug.

According to Ann Lewis, an attorney who represented Republicans in a 2003 redistricting lawsuit and now advises the GOP leadership on the issue, a worker in the legislative office in charge of redistricting approached her with a concern about the numbers in a metro Atlanta district.

The employee told Ms. Lewis that the percentage of black voters in District 5 appeared to have dropped substantially between the current map and the proposed plan.

Ms. Lewis and the redistricting employee took the new numbers to Sen. Chip Rogers, a Woodstock Republican who chairs the map-drawing panel.
He and Senate leaders decided to yank the plan.

I thought the Senate's yanking the plan might have been for other reasons.

You recall that last week we learned that former Congressman Mac Collins has finally confirmed an interest in running for Congress (see 3-14-05 Poltical Insider). Ever since the subject of redrawing the congressional map came up, there's been speculation that Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall's Middle Georgia district might be reshaped as a possible future home for former Republican U.S. Rep. Mac Collins.

At the same time there has been speculation that Collins might challenge Gov. Perdue, and Collins even had some polling done on how he would fare against Perdue as noted in the 1-28-05 post captioned in part "Where is it written that Perdue will be the '06 GOP nominee?"

Under the House passed G-7 redistricting plan, he would be paired up against Rep. Jim Marshall who garnered some 63% of the vote in the present 3rd Congressional District.

On March 14 Collins finally was heard from, saying he is "looking very seriously" at the proposed new 8th District, which now would stretch from Newton County east of Atlanta to Colquitt County in South Georgia.

The proposed district includes Butts County, where Collins owns a home, and it even has his old number. Throughout the decade, the district Marshall represents has been the 3rd, while the Southside Atlanta district represented by Collins, and now Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, has been the 8th.

Collins said he has represented at least 25 percent of the proposed new 8th. He noted that the territory went heavily for Bush last year — although it also went solidly for Marshall. "It looks very favorable," Collins said.

The above-linked Political Insider speculated that "[i]t might also look favorable to other Republicans, which could be why Collins is letting his interest be known before the last blessing has been said over the new map."

My thinking was that with this new development -- Collins confirming an interest in returning to Washington rather than running against Perdue for governor -- might have the G-7 reviewing the G-7 redistricting plan, possibly even giving a second look to Franklin's plan or some variation thereof.

Why? Collins was the most senior member of Congress before relinquishing that seat to run for the U.S. Senate seat won by Isakson. Had he stayed in Washington, soon he would have been Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, one of the most presitigious in that it writes our tax law.

Thus, I thought, even though he left Congress, Collins still commands some amount of respect of the G-7, and has a place at the Georgia Republicans' table. Maybe the Georgia Republican Congressmen had urged the state Senate t consider to move a line here and a line there to get Collins a congressional district where he has represented a whole lot more than 25 percent of the district.

But it is probably the case that Collins has waited too long to make his wishes true, and thus the Senate's sudden pulling of the redistricting plan last Tuesday was due to the reasons noted above and that were also reviewed in the 3-16-05 Political Insider.

With Collins letting various anonymous Republicans seeking a candidate against Perdue know he is no longer interested, the focus has shifted to Bill Byrne, as also reported in the just-noted issue of Political Insider.

You recall that Bill Byrne, the former Cobb County commission chairman, was one of Perdue's opponents in '02, and his name also came up in the above-discussed polling done about Collins versue Perdue.

According to the 3-16-05 Political Insider, Byrne says he was first approached last December; he was lukewarm about it then; but the contact by certain Republicans has continued; and he says he probably will wait until the first of June to make a decision.

With certain elements of the state GOP being concerned that Gov. Sonny Perdue is vulnerable in '06, where does this leave such Republicans?

My own opinion is that Perdue is more vulnerable to a Democrat than just any Republican challenger. Personally, I do not consider Bill Byrne to represent the type of challenger who could wrestle the nomination from
Perdue.

Is there another out there? As I have noted before, I suspect the name Rep. Jack Kingston to surface at some time. Why? The reasons were in my 1-28-05 post that noted in part as follows:

A 10-24-04 post entitled in part "Where is it written that Perdue will be the '06 GOP nominee?," referred back to a 09-07-04 post.

This earlier post first discussed some potential GOP candidates for Lt. Gov.; then encouraged Democrats not to waste time in coming forward if they wished to run for Lt. Gov. in '06; and then concluded as follows:

"And here's to wishing the Democratic party more motivation and better luck [in coming up with Lt. Gov. candidates] than it had in coming up with candidates for the U.S. Senate race.

"And as an aside, just because I did not mention the top of the ticket for the GOP does not mean Sonny Perdue is a slam dunk. Talk about his replacement began some time back, and it may gain momentum or fizzle out as time goes on.

"If it gains momentum, a strong possibility for his replacement -- Rep. Jack Kingston."

I gave some of the background for my 09-07-04 post comment on Rep. Jack Kingston in my 10-24-04 post by noting:

"The [statement in my 09-07-04 post] about a strong possibility for [Perdue's] replacement being Rep. Jack Kingston [is based on what I think is going on in Kingston's mind with regard to wanting to do something other than remain a congressman]. Kingston wanted to run for the U.S. Senate this time so badly he could hardly stand it. He was wise in not running. This is my basis for saying he might want to try Atlanta for awhile."

I confess that my saying Kingston's wanting "to run for the U.S. Senate" was "my basis for saying he might want to try Atlanta for awhile" is a pretty weak basis for such speculation. In truth it was intentionally evasive and cryptic.

Now the straight talk. It is no secret among his friends that Kingston would love to be governor of the state of Georgia. But Kingston has traveled and campaigned for and with Sonny Perdue in various campaigns, and for this reason would be reluctant to initiate a challenge against him in '06.

But, if we add a couple of factors to the situtation, I think things change considerably. Such as? Such as Mac Collins challenging Perdue. Then the whole picture changes. Kingston did not initiate the challenge to a sitting Republican governor. Someone else did, and if it is Collins or someone with Collins' stature, there is going to be the perception that the seat is open, and if you're interested, qualify.

Stay tuned. '06 has all of the potential to be a most interesting year, and not just from the Democratic side.