(1) Barrow to run "out of district;" (2) Damages to Barrow & Marshall intentional & Collins is in Marshall's 3rd; & (3) Map designed to help Gingrey.

In today's PI is the follow:

Democrats have now had time to study the new congressional map breezing through the Legislature. Following is the assessment from newdonkey.com:

— "Freshman Dem Rep. John Barrow's home county of Clarke (Athens) is moved out of his district, though his staff makes it clear he'll run for re-election in the 12th anyway."

— "More serious damage was done to 3d District (central-west central GA) Rep. Jim Marshall, whose district goes from 40 percent African-American to 33 percent."

— "Meanwhile, 11th District (northwest GA) Rep. Phil Gingrey would get a district radically reshaped in his favor, with the African-American population dropping from 28 percent to 12 percent, and Republican performance being boosted from 51 percent to 64 percent."
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As noted by the Political Insider, the source of the above was NewDonkey.com, an unofficial weblog sponsored by the Democratic Leadership Council. And NewDonkey.com's source was the Roll Call.

More from what NewDonkey.com and Roll Call reported follows:

Georgia Republican legislators have agreed on a re-redistricting of the state's Congressional districts that's basically designed to mess with two Democratic incumbents and shore up a vulnerable Republican incumbent.

Freshman Dem Rep. John Barrow's home county of Clarke (Athens) is moved out of his district, though his staff makes it clear he'll run for re-election in the 12th anyway. Interestingly enough, the map-drawers managed to actually increase the African-American percentage of the voting age population in the 12th while reducing its Democratic performance level. That's because Athens (home of the University of Georgia) probably has more white Democrats than any city in the state. Still, it remains a majority-Democratic district, and it's hard to call Barrow a carpetbagger when the carpet's actually been pulled out from under him.

More serious damage was done to 3d District (central-west central GA) Rep. Jim Marshall, whose district goes from 40% African-American to 33%, with Bush having won 58% of the 2000 vote (the measure of GOP performance since the population figures are from the 2000 census) in the new map as opposed to 52% in the old. Since Marshall waxed Calder Clay, a well-funded and hand-picked GOP challenger in 2004, by a 63-37 margin, Georgia Dems think he should be able to hold the district. But it's worth noting that the home of former Congressman Mac Collins, who lost the GOP Senate nomination in '04, has been quietly slipped into Marshall's district, which may mean Collins is considering a comeback. *

Meanwhile, 11th District (northwest GA) Rep. Phil Gingrey would get a district radically reshaped in his favor, with the African-American population dropping from 28% to 12%, and Republican performance being boosted from 51% to 64%. This is no huge surprise, since the 11th was originally designed as a very competitive district. And while I wouldn't want to call the Gentleman from the 11th a wingnut or anything, it is rumored he has to wear special weights to keep him from keeling over on his right side while walking.

The lawyers who follow this sort of thing think the Power Grab will probably survive Voting Rights Act scrutiny, because its authors were careful to avoid any direct impact on Georgia's four African-American House incumbents. But there's a possible legal hook in the murky doctrine of "minority-influence districts,"** wherein the Voting Rights Act can be violated if action is taken to dilute a high if not majority percentage of minority voters, which arguably is the case with both the Marshall and Gingrey remaps.

According to Roll Call, some Georgia Dems are reportedly relieved that the re-redistricting was not as drastic as some had feared.
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* As noted in NewDonkey.com, putting Collins into Marshall's district could mean that Collins is considering a comeback, but it might show us something else. It could show us that Gov. Perdue had some influence in drawing this map, and wanted Collins included as an inducement for him to run for congress rather than against Perdue. Until Collins tells us he is not running for governor against Perdue, he should be considered a potential candidate, and if he indicates he might run, then it is possible that Rep. Jack Kingston will jump into the race also.

** A "minority-influence district" is also sometimes called a "district of influence" (this is what I prefer to call it). As noted, it is where, while not a majority, a minority has a significant percentage of Voting Age Population ("VAP") voters. Thus a candidate, presumably a white candidate, cannot afford to completely disregard the minority, because although the minority is not large enough (it is not a majority) to determine the outcome of an election, it can definitely influence its outcome. As noted, the Voting Rights Act can be violated if action is taken to dilute a high if not majority percentage of minority voters in such a district.

After reviewing these figures on black VAP, I think that the manner in which this map increases the black VAP in the 12th congressional district could cause a problem with the Department of Justice who must approve any redistricting plan. It is a problem that did not exist under Franklin's original and revised map, and one that had not occurred to me until I read this above article.

As noted in the above article, this map was able to do this since because Athens has so many white Democrats than any city in the state, but still mostly votes Democratic. From personal experience, this fact can be examined by the Department of Justice (that is, it does not have to review black VAP data from a purely objective viewpoint).