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THE MUSINGS OF A TRADITIONAL SOUTHERN DEMOCRAT

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Sid in his law office where he sits when meeting with clients. Observant eyes will notice the statuette of one of Sid's favorite Democrats.

Thursday, November 07, 2013

Close result in Va. governor’s race hardens GOP divisions - McAuliffe’s victory masked the fact that although Democrats in Virginia can reliably depend on nonwhite and unmarried voters, they seem to lose among whites and married people almost without regard to their candidates’ ideology or personality.

From The Washington Post:

Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe’s unexpectedly slim victory in Virginia set off an explosion of recriminations among Republicans on Wednesday, and rather than settling the battle between the GOP’s tea party and business factions, the election appears to have deepened the internal divide.

If lessons emerged from Tuesday’s vote, they were almost instantly lost in the volley of finger-pointing that began even before the polls closed. Republican Ken Cuccinelli II’s narrow loss, despite what opinion surveys had consistently called a comfortable lead for McAuliffe, left the candidate’s camp accusing national party organizations of abandoning their man in the closest major race in the nation this year.

Party officials said it was Cuccinelli who had failed to raise money from mainstream Republican sources skeptical of his hard-line rhetoric and uncompromising conservatism.

“The lesson is that a party divided is going to lose,” said Pete Snyder, a Northern Virginia technology entrepreneur who served as Cuccinelli’s finance chairman. “The Democrats weren’t happy with their candidate, but they were united. Ken Cuccinelli had to deal with Melrose Place.”

Amid the internal sniping, Tuesday’s vote — which left McAuliffe the victor by less than 2.5 percentage points — revealed potentially important lessons about Virginia’s evolving politics for both parties.

McAuliffe’s victory masked the fact that although Democrats in Virginia can reliably depend on nonwhite and unmarried voters, they seem to lose among whites and married people almost without regard to their candidates’ ideology or personality. Democrats have lost the white vote by 20 or more percentage points in the last four Virginia votes for governor or president, according to survey data.

Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) said his party has figured out “how to win Virginia. But we also need to broaden our reach to all those red parts of the state you see on the map. The population centers are more favorable to Democrats, but I do think there’s growing alienation in the nonurban parts of the state that we have to address to be a broader and more inclusive party.”

He said the key to winning in rural Virginia is to show residents that Democrats “can deliver for you. There are lot of counties in Virginia that are very distressed. Can we bring investment to that community? Can we overcome some of the suspicious and cultural conservatism that right now holds sway in a large part of rural Virginia?”

“The ghost of conservative Virginia past loomed over this race,” said Quentin Kidd, a government professor at Christopher Newport University in Newport News. “McAuliffe, unlike [former governors and current U.S. Senators] Tim Kaine or Mark Warner, is a left progressive Democrat, and Democrats still have to nominate business-friendly, moderate candidates like Kaine or Warner to win.”

Kidd said the closeness of Tuesday’s vote may make it less likely that either party will look beyond its internal battles to find a way to broaden its appeal to moderates and independents.

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