Fact # 1: In gov's race, Barnes formidable to Democratic opponents. -- Fact # 2: Democratic Party needs T. Baker & D. Porter active & in some office.

Aaron Gould Sheinin gives the Cracker Squire a little ink in the AJC:

There are five men running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but only one of them is named Roy Barnes.

That, in the simplest form, is what has come to define the race.

Barnes, the once and possibly future governor, has near universal statewide name recognition that allows him to run as if he’s still an incumbent, plus millions of dollars in campaign cash. Barnes is Goliath and the other four candidates — Attorney General Thurbert Baker, Ray City Mayor Carl Camon, House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and former Adjutant Gen. David Poythress — have yet to prove they have either the slingshot or the stone to slay the giant.

The primary is July 20, just five months away. And while four, maybe five, Republicans have a legitimate shot to be the GOP candidate in November, can anyone not named Barnes win the Democratic nomination?

A December poll by the national firm Rasmussen Reports shows Barnes getting 48 percent of the primary vote to 17 percent for Baker, 4 percent for Poythress, 3 percent for Porter and 1 percent for Camon. A January poll from Rasmussen, too, shows Barnes neck and neck with any of the likely Republican candidates.

Sid Cottingham, a lawyer in South Georgia’s Coffee County, is a Democratic activist who runs the popular Cracker Squire blog. He’s also a Barnes supporter but calls himself a close friend to Porter and Baker. He said those two men have done important things for the party and he laments their decision to stay in the race despite Barnes’ advantages. If they lose the primary, they are both out of office.

“I’m a Democrat. I’m a very moderate Democrat, and our party’s ranks are slim,” he said. “Durn, we need Thurbert and we need DuBose.”

University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, an expert in Georgia politics who has written extensively about primary and runoff elections, was able to offer some hope to Baker.

“It seems there’s a scenario under which Thurbert Baker could [win],” Bullock said. “For [Porter and Poythress] it’s harder.”

Baker, who is black, would conceivably benefit from a high turnout among African-American voters in the primary. Typically, Bullock said, African-Americans cast about half of all votes in Democratic primaries.

So, Bullock said, Baker’s path is rocky. But any path for Porter and Poythress is downright treacherous.

The essential problem for Baker, Porter and Poythress comes down to a Catch-22 of cash and name recognition. Without the name recognition, it’s more difficult to raise money. Without money, it’s nearly impossible to raise your name recognition because the best, and some say only, way to raise name recognition in a state as large as Georgia is through television advertising. And without money, there’s no television advertising.