Texas primary on March 2: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is lagging in the polls against incumbent. Wouldn't a Hail Mary be wonderful!

From The New York Times:

Just a year ago, many Republican leaders considered Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison to be the odds-on favorite to become the next governor of Texas. A popular lawmaker from the old-guard Republican establishment, she was seen as someone who could widen the party’s appeal after the setbacks it suffered during the 2008 national election.

Back then, the incumbent, Gov. Rick Perry, appeared vulnerable, having won a four-way re-election fight in 2006 and having hitched himself to the most conservative wing of the Republican Party.

But the political winds have shifted for Ms. Hutchison in the last few months, and she now finds herself far behind in the polls, as Mr. Perry has managed to surf a wave of anger here over President Obama’s policies.

Never has a race for governor in Texas so clearly defined the difference between the country-club wing of the Republican Party, where elite business leaders sit astride the financial engines of Dallas and Houston, and the populist Reagan Republicans, talk-radio-fueled voters who are upset about issues like budget deficits, gun control and legalized abortion.

In a sense, Mr. Perry is the embodiment of white, conservative Democrats from the South who switched parties after Ronald Reagan’s presidency.

Ms. Hutchison, who was first elected to the Senate in 1993, has rallied most of the Republican establishment behind her. Former President George Bush has endorsed her, as has former Vice President Dick Cheney. While former President George W. Bush has not taken a public stand, several people close to him are working for her, among them Karen Hughes, his former political adviser.

But two weeks before the Republican primary on March 2, Mr. Perry has turned his fortunes around by promoting the Texas economy and railing against every decision in Washington, including the economic stimulus bill, the bank bailout legislation and the move to limit carbon emissions. On the stump, he often sounds as if he is running against the federal government.

“Do you want a leader who loves Texas and all it stands for or a creature of Washington that tears down the state?” he said at a recent rally where former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska endorsed him. The crowd of 5,000 people, many of them from the Tea Party movement, roared in approval.

Last week Ms. Hutchison acknowledged that her prospects were in doubt. Accepting the endorsement of Roger Staubach, the former Dallas Cowboys quarterback, she said a Hail Mary pass was “looking better all the time.”

Mr. Perry has thrown his lot in with anti-tax crusaders and social conservatives. He has taken every opportunity to use his bully pulpit to bully Congress, the Senate and Mr. Obama, even when the federal government is offering money to the state.

Last fall, he rejected new federal money for education and unemployment benefits, saying it would drive up state spending.

So relentless has Mr. Perry been in attacking Washington that he has even criticized Ms. Hutchison for steering $8.7 billion in federal projects to Texas over the last five years.

Ms. Hutchison acknowledges that a bigger-than-expected turnout is critical to her pulling off an upset. “I need for the November Republicans to turn out in the primary,” she said.