Dr. Charles S. Bullock notes the Super Tuesday vote did not signal an immediacy to a leftward shift in Georgia.
Dr. Charles S. Bullock writes in InsiderAdvantage Georgia:
Commentators are giving Democrats hope that the GOP tide has finally crested by noting that on Super Tuesday more Georgians picked Democratic than Republican ballots.
These interpretations are overly optimistic. Greater primary turnout among Democrats than Republicans is nothing new.
The distinctive aspect of Super Tuesday participation is the unprecedented number of voters. Turnout exceeded any previous figure by 45 percent and more than doubled the vote two years ago. Participation in each party’s presidential primary equaled or exceeded the total primary turnout in four recent years.
The pendulum that has swung strongly Republican will ultimately arc back leftward. But the Super Tuesday vote did not signal an immediacy to that shift. Whether Democrats nominate Barak Obama or Hillary Clinton, Georgia will almost certainly be in the GOP column this November. If it is not, then the Democratic nominee will be on the way to a win of massive proportions like that of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 or Franklin Roosevelt 28 years earlier.
Commentators are giving Democrats hope that the GOP tide has finally crested by noting that on Super Tuesday more Georgians picked Democratic than Republican ballots.
These interpretations are overly optimistic. Greater primary turnout among Democrats than Republicans is nothing new.
The distinctive aspect of Super Tuesday participation is the unprecedented number of voters. Turnout exceeded any previous figure by 45 percent and more than doubled the vote two years ago. Participation in each party’s presidential primary equaled or exceeded the total primary turnout in four recent years.
The pendulum that has swung strongly Republican will ultimately arc back leftward. But the Super Tuesday vote did not signal an immediacy to that shift. Whether Democrats nominate Barak Obama or Hillary Clinton, Georgia will almost certainly be in the GOP column this November. If it is not, then the Democratic nominee will be on the way to a win of massive proportions like that of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 or Franklin Roosevelt 28 years earlier.
posted by Sid Cottingham | 11:42 AM
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