A couple of observations from Dr. Charles Bullock on Iowa and New Hampshire and the presidential selection process.

Dr. Charles Bullock writes in InsiderAdvantage Georgia:

Iowa’s 2000 population was 92.6 percent white while New Hampshire was even whiter – 95.1 percent.

In every instance those who turn out to select presidential nominees disproportionately come from the ranks of strong partisans. Given the longer time that the caucuses demand of participants, the threshold of party interest and commitment to a particular candidate is greater in Iowa and Nevada than in a primary state like Georgia. But in every instance those who select the delegates whose votes will determine partisan presidential nominees are committed partisans and thus not representative of the broader electorate. A potential problem is that a party’s staunchest supporters rally to the flag of a contender who proves unable to broaden the appeal so as to attract enough Independents and weak partisans to win in November.