Georgia may gain seat in House

From the Chattanooga Times Free Press:

Georgia is projected to pick up one U.S. House seat after the 2010 census, continuing a trend that has seen it gain seats in each of the past two population counts, according to Polidata, a Virginia-based demographics and political analysis firm.

One of the fastest population-growing states in the country, Georgia will be one of eight states, mostly in the South and West, to gain seats, at the expense of the Midwest and Northeast, according to the projection. Georgia currently has 13 House seats.

Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, said the Peach State could even gain two seats if its population grows a little faster in the second half of the decade. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Georgia's population has risen 14.4 percent to 9.4 million from 2000 to 2006, far outpacing 6.4percent population growth of the United States overall.

Demographers attribute those migration patterns to an increase in Hispanics and the growth of economic hotbeds in places such as Atlanta and Las Vegas.

State legislatures are charged with the task of drawing congressional districts, making the process a political affair. For Georgia, which has been trending more Republican over the past few years, this likely will produce an advantage for the GOP.

Dr. Bullock, who studies redistricting, said Republicans likely will have majorities in the state House and Senate, and probably a Republican governor, too, in 2011, when the districts will be redrawn. As a result, the state's 14th congressional district will probably be drawn on the east side of Atlanta in the "very much Republican suburbs."

He said state Republicans can be expected to draw the districts so that nine lean Republican and five lean Democratic. The current delegation is seven Republicans and six Democrats.

Vulnerable Democrats such as Rep. Jim Marshall, D-Ga., who represents Macon and rural Middle Georgia, could find their prospects of staying in office even slimmer, Dr. Bullock said. Rep. Marshall won his 2006 re-election bid by just 2 percent.

Martin Matheny, a spokesman for the Georgia Democratic Party, said the state may see the effects of voter discontent with Republicans and, in particular, President Bush, giving Democratic candidates a boost.

"We have to do everything we can to make sure we have control of at least one chamber and hopefully the governor, as well," he said. We've seen in the past that the Republicans will play with (redistricting) lines to help their guys as much as possible."

Ben Fry, executive director of the Georgia Republican Party, countered that Democrats have been guilty of "butchering" the state into partisan districts.

The parties have battled in court over gerrymandering, most recently last year, when Democrats mounted an unsuccessful legal challenge to the Republicans' redrawing of the lines in 2005, which was in response to the Democrats' redistricting in 2001.

"We're interested in compact, continuous districts that keep communities intact," Mr. Fry said. "We're going to compete well in any map that's drawn."