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THE MUSINGS OF A TRADITIONAL SOUTHERN DEMOCRAT

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Location: Douglas, Coffee Co., The Other Georgia, United States

Sid in his law office where he sits when meeting with clients. Observant eyes will notice the statuette of one of Sid's favorite Democrats.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Lessons for Virginia and beyond.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports:

Jerry W. Kilgore got his referendum.

The Republican's crushing defeat by Democrat Timothy M. Kaine in the governor's race signals that, despite the rapid ascendancy of the GOP, Virginia's political orientation is more practical than partisan.

Beyond the state's borders, Kaine's victory will be seen as a setback for an embattled President Bush, who nationalized the hard-fought contest with his last-minute fly-in for Kilgore's anemic candidacy, a centerpiece of which was a promise to let voters decide on tax increases.

The fortunes of two presidential prospects also are affected by the result: Departing Democratic Gov. Mark R. Warner's are up; Republican U.S. Sen. George Allen's are down.

National Democrats, looking for a winning strategy in the 2006 congressional elections and the race for the White House two years later, will note that Kaine not only held the centrist coalition that lifted Warner to office in 2001 but also effectively played the values card that Republicans believed was theirs.

"We're trying to show here that God isn't a Republican," said David Eichenbaum, who, with Karl Struble, produced much of Kaine's radio and television advertising, including commercials in which the candidate invoked his Catholic faith. "This may be one of the biggest lessons that Democrats have to take out of this."

As a Catholic, Kaine said he opposes abortion and the death penalty. As a prospective governor, he vowed to uphold the laws allowing both.

Though Kilgore claimed Kaine got religion only because it was an election year, voters -- as public-opinion polls showed -- were comfortable that Kaine would not put church ahead of state.

This allowed Kaine to survive the most hazardous stretch of the eight-month, $40 million campaign: a punishing barrage of Kilgore ads by Scott Howell -- an archrival of Eichenbaum and Struble -- in which relatives of murder victims branded the Democrat unreliable on the death penalty.

One spot suggested that Kaine would not execute even Adolf Hitler.

Republicans, certain that Kaine's stance on capital punishment would prove politically fatal in a state where 75 percent of voters favor it, were instead stunned by a backlash. In one survey, one in four voters said they were more inclined to oppose Kilgore because of the disputed ads.

Howell, who fashioned controversial ads for Bush and winning U.S. Senate candidates, appeared to acknowledge the perils of his handiwork for Kilgore. "We're not in the best environment to be running a campaign," Howell told the left-of-center political journal, The Nation.

In addition, Kilgore's ads became a substitute for a candidate who seemed skills-challenged and, at times, nearly invisible.

Virginia was an inhospitable setting for Kilgore and his Republicans, who drew solace from Bill Bolling's win for lieutenant governor and were hoping Robert F. McDonnell would survive for attorney general.

The president's standing declined in a state he easily carried in 2000 and 2004, a consequence of uncertainty over the war in Iraq, fuel prices, natural disasters and a growing federal deficit.

In contrast, Warner's popularity loomed over the campaign. His approval rating topped 70 percent, spanning the partisan divide and rising even after winning a promise-breaking $1.4 billion tax increase for education, human services and law enforcement.

"This became as much a referendum on Mark Warner in some ways as it was about Tim Kaine," said Steve Jarding, the strategist credited with helping Warner win back Republican-leaning rural voters four years ago.

"This propels him, and a lot of national pundits that follow American politics are going to say Mark Warner won big tonight. It sets him up to move nationally and to make the case [that] you can win in red states, and if you govern well in a red state, a Democrat can follow you in office."

Allen, Kilgore's mentor, may be forced to reappraise his philosophical bearings and campaign tactics as he, too, shifts to the national stage, perhaps tacking from the right to the middle and toning down his hit-'em-hard, hit-'em-low, hit-'em-again style.

The wild card in the Virginia race proved he wasn't, but he did provide evidence that divisions within the Republican Party are enduring.

State Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., R-Winchester, ran for governor as an independent to protest his party's lurch to the right. He was a blip in the polls and a footnote on Election Day -- but a feisty symbol of the GOP's fading moderate bloc.

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