Centrist Democrat a Test of GOP Hold. Nebraska's Nelson Could Help Thwart Drive to Build Filibuster-Proof Senate.
Republican hopes of expanding the party's Senate majority begin in Nebraska, where first-term Democrat Ben Nelson is bidding for reelection in a state President Bush won by a landslide.
But Nelson, a leader in putting together last month's bipartisan pact on judicial nominees, is proving that red-state Democrats can still win fans by sticking to the political center and acting as can-do problem solvers who put pragmatism above party.
"Nelson will never say he's a Democrat," said University of Nebraska political scientist John Hibbing. It's a smart strategy, he said, in a state where registered Republicans heavily outnumber Democrats but voters embrace an independent spirit reflected in their one-of-a-kind nonpartisan, unicameral legislature.
Triumphant visits such as the one Nelson enjoyed here and in Omaha are troubling to the GOP. If the party is to inch closer to a filibuster-proof Senate majority -- 60 votes -- campaign experts say, Republicans must step up their candidate-recruitment efforts and their critiques of Democrats in Nebraska, North Dakota, Florida and other states Bush carried.
Republicans stress that the election is 17 months away and Democrats face their own problems in several states. But Nelson's homestate visit suggests that centrist Democrats with discipline, campaign skills and luck can still generate considerable support in states their party long ago surrendered at the presidential level.
[In a campaign stop,] Nelson vowed to prevent Republicans from defining him.
"I don't want to ban the Bible," he said. "I don't want to take away your guns. I'm not for gay marriage." As he described the political left and right in Congress, a woman in the front row held her hands two feet apart to symbolize the political center. "There's a lot of us right here," she declared. Nelson beamed.
Republicans hold 55 of the Senate's 100 seats, and a few gains in next year's elections would make it extremely difficult for Democratic leaders to sustain filibusters, an action that requires 41 votes.
Bush won 31 states last year. If Republicans hold all the Senate seats from those states, they will command the chamber 62 to 38, even if they lose their eight members from states that Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry won last November.
Last fall, Republicans won all five southern seats from which Democrats retired, and Democrats are desperate to reelect their incumbents in tough states next year. Topping the GOP's target list are Nelson and Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, where Bush took 63 percent of the vote last fall, only slightly lower than his 66 percent majority in Nebraska.
However, in both states the GOP faces recruiting problems.
Republicans also have recruitment concerns in Florida, which Bush carried 52 to 47 percent over Kerry. Many Republicans feel their best candidates are running for the open governor's seat rather than challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D). Among those weighing a Senate bid is Rep. Katherine Harris, who gained national attention while overseeing the chaotic state ballot recount that helped Bush win over Al Gore in 2000. Harris is so popular among grateful GOP die-hards that she might win the Senate GOP primary, analysts say. But her general election prospects are less certain. "She's still really polarizing," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Democrats, who are defending 18 seats to the GOP's 15, see their best hopes for Senate gains in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Bush lost those states in 2000 and last year. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), an outspoken conservative, expects a strong challenge from state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. (D).
In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R) is more liberal than several Democratic senators, but that is not good enough, Democratic strategists say.
(6-5-05, The Washington Post.)
But Nelson, a leader in putting together last month's bipartisan pact on judicial nominees, is proving that red-state Democrats can still win fans by sticking to the political center and acting as can-do problem solvers who put pragmatism above party.
"Nelson will never say he's a Democrat," said University of Nebraska political scientist John Hibbing. It's a smart strategy, he said, in a state where registered Republicans heavily outnumber Democrats but voters embrace an independent spirit reflected in their one-of-a-kind nonpartisan, unicameral legislature.
Triumphant visits such as the one Nelson enjoyed here and in Omaha are troubling to the GOP. If the party is to inch closer to a filibuster-proof Senate majority -- 60 votes -- campaign experts say, Republicans must step up their candidate-recruitment efforts and their critiques of Democrats in Nebraska, North Dakota, Florida and other states Bush carried.
Republicans stress that the election is 17 months away and Democrats face their own problems in several states. But Nelson's homestate visit suggests that centrist Democrats with discipline, campaign skills and luck can still generate considerable support in states their party long ago surrendered at the presidential level.
[In a campaign stop,] Nelson vowed to prevent Republicans from defining him.
"I don't want to ban the Bible," he said. "I don't want to take away your guns. I'm not for gay marriage." As he described the political left and right in Congress, a woman in the front row held her hands two feet apart to symbolize the political center. "There's a lot of us right here," she declared. Nelson beamed.
Republicans hold 55 of the Senate's 100 seats, and a few gains in next year's elections would make it extremely difficult for Democratic leaders to sustain filibusters, an action that requires 41 votes.
Bush won 31 states last year. If Republicans hold all the Senate seats from those states, they will command the chamber 62 to 38, even if they lose their eight members from states that Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry won last November.
Last fall, Republicans won all five southern seats from which Democrats retired, and Democrats are desperate to reelect their incumbents in tough states next year. Topping the GOP's target list are Nelson and Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, where Bush took 63 percent of the vote last fall, only slightly lower than his 66 percent majority in Nebraska.
However, in both states the GOP faces recruiting problems.
Republicans also have recruitment concerns in Florida, which Bush carried 52 to 47 percent over Kerry. Many Republicans feel their best candidates are running for the open governor's seat rather than challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D). Among those weighing a Senate bid is Rep. Katherine Harris, who gained national attention while overseeing the chaotic state ballot recount that helped Bush win over Al Gore in 2000. Harris is so popular among grateful GOP die-hards that she might win the Senate GOP primary, analysts say. But her general election prospects are less certain. "She's still really polarizing," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Democrats, who are defending 18 seats to the GOP's 15, see their best hopes for Senate gains in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Bush lost those states in 2000 and last year. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), an outspoken conservative, expects a strong challenge from state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. (D).
In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R) is more liberal than several Democratic senators, but that is not good enough, Democratic strategists say.
(6-5-05, The Washington Post.)
posted by Sid Cottingham | 12:05 PM
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