Update on GOP candidates for lieutenant governor.
Tuesday's AJC's Political Insider noted that Ralph Reed had issued a list of 473 citizens who will populate the steering committee of his Republican campaign for lieutenant governor.
Why issue the list at this time?
In the opinion of the Political Insider:
[T]o promote an air of inevitability around a race that's still 14 months and at least one U.S. Senate hearing away.
When I first read this I thought the Political Insider meant "air of invincibility," and yes, this was part of the reason also.
And the expressed reason offered by Ralph Reed for publishing the list at such an early date:
"There are two groups of people in a campaign. The people who are with you in the beginning, and the people who are with you in the end."
Included in the list of 473 was Eric Zeier of Marietta, the former University of Georgia quarterback; Sam Olens, chairman of the Cobb County Commission; U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland; and state legislators Reps. Tommy Smith of Nicholls and Joe Wilkinson of Sandy Springs, and state Sen. Ralph Hudgens of Comer.
The GOP campaign of Casey Cagle countered on Westmoreland by noting that it counted U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal in its camp, and also noted that the Reed core group was curiously light on state legislators. Quoting from the Political Insider:
"When it comes to having a network on the ground, we have Mr. Reed out-classed," said Cagle campaign spokesman Brad Alexander. He said two-thirds of Republicans in the state Senate have endorsed Cagle.
Cagle is brave -- and at the same time smart -- in staying in this race with Ralph Reed. Running someone's campaign is very different from being a candidate, as Reed is finding out. Stranger things could happen that end up with Cagle prevailing, although at this time I predict a blowout.
The blowout stuff assumes Tom DeLay does not get to be a yoke around Reed's political neck. For as Bill Shipp observed last week:
If state senator Cagle succeeds in identifying Reed with DeLay and D.C. sleaze, then the lawmaker from Gainesville may defeat Georgia's most famous national political operative. Reed's long-term ambitions might end with a knockout in his first election bout.
And at the moment, in the words of the Dean,
[t]he Washington media have painted DeLay and Reed as nearly joined at the hip in a series of shadowy lobbying efforts.
Continuing, the Dean notes:
Reed undoubtedly understands the danger. To survive politically in Georgia, Reed must figure out how to shed his growing reputation as the Great American Wheeler-Dealer. He also must put distance between himself and DeLay and similar high-rolling, pseudo-conservative power brokers in Washington.
To do that may not be easy. Even so, Reed is now a favorite to win easily the lieutenant governor's office. To some observers, his advantages appear almost insurmountable. He is well known, even if he is not universally adored. More important, Reed has access to millions of political dollars. He can not only finance his own campaign for high office, he also can steer huge sums to other state Republican office-seekers. Overnight, Reed could become a Georgia kingmaker, the likes of which we have not seen since the demise of the Talmadges.
Alas, while cash may buy the affection of fellow candidates, it does not always engender love from the multitudes. (See Gov. Roy Barnes' 2002 campaign.) To persuade voters he is clean despite daily headlines suggesting otherwise, Reed needs to renounce some of his associates. To do so, of course, could shut off the money spigot. Without access to treasure troves, Reed is just another pretty face in the religious right's choir.
However, Reed is not alone in needing to sever national connections. He is simply the most visible symbol of having to bear the growing burden of being a national Republican guy.
Ironically, Georgia Republicans are slowly sinking into the same quicksand that finally engulfed Georgia Democrats. They are in danger of becoming too closely identified with their national administration.
At the moment, rising fuel prices, a shaky stock market, more job losses, a skyrocketing national debt, continuing casualties in Iraq, unabated illegal immigration, endangered Social Security benefits - not to mention the DeLay-connected scandals - all bear the stamp of the Washington Republican administration.
In such an uncertain atmosphere, rafter-rattling rhetoric about family values, activist judges and the ownership society ring hollow.
Many voters, including genuinely conservative ones, increasingly view the Republican agenda as anti-middle class.
All of which brings us back to Cagle versus Reed. Cagle is the quintessential local boy, a low-key legislator with roots deep in the red clay. Reed, on the other hand, is a national lightning rod for controversy, right alongside DeLay.
By the time the 2006 primaries are held, the Reed-Cagle GOP contest may energize a turnout of voters so large it will eclipse the Democratic gubernatorial primary between Cathy Cox and Mark Taylor.
Some potential voters for Cox and Taylor may abandon the Democrats to participate in the GOP primary - just to cast a ballot against Reed and his money bags.
In the end, the Reed candidacy may generate a political tsunami - one that creates havoc across party lines and shakes up Georgia government for years to come.
_______________
Is such possible? Not given the makeup of those who will vote in the Republican primary in 2006. Conventional wisdom is that in order to win, a Republican must veer right for the primary, and then veer back left toward the center for the general election.
Ralph Reed won't have to worry about doing any veering, and that is why I think his running for lieutenant governor in 2006 is the best thing that could have happened to the Democratic Party in Georgia.
Ironically, Reed's running for becoming the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor is going to drastically help our party's chances of reclaiming the governor's mansion. This is because the contrast between the GOP and the Democratic parties will seldom be as apparent.
And this will be the case regardless of whether the Democratic nominee is Mark Taylor or Cathy Cox.
_______________
This post concerned the GOP candidates for lieutenant governor.
What about the Democrats? Is there any update in this department? Not really. How about if there is no news, make some. Good thinking, as long as it is good news. Go to page two, in this case, the below post that precedes this one . . . .
Why issue the list at this time?
In the opinion of the Political Insider:
[T]o promote an air of inevitability around a race that's still 14 months and at least one U.S. Senate hearing away.
When I first read this I thought the Political Insider meant "air of invincibility," and yes, this was part of the reason also.
And the expressed reason offered by Ralph Reed for publishing the list at such an early date:
"There are two groups of people in a campaign. The people who are with you in the beginning, and the people who are with you in the end."
Included in the list of 473 was Eric Zeier of Marietta, the former University of Georgia quarterback; Sam Olens, chairman of the Cobb County Commission; U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland; and state legislators Reps. Tommy Smith of Nicholls and Joe Wilkinson of Sandy Springs, and state Sen. Ralph Hudgens of Comer.
The GOP campaign of Casey Cagle countered on Westmoreland by noting that it counted U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal in its camp, and also noted that the Reed core group was curiously light on state legislators. Quoting from the Political Insider:
"When it comes to having a network on the ground, we have Mr. Reed out-classed," said Cagle campaign spokesman Brad Alexander. He said two-thirds of Republicans in the state Senate have endorsed Cagle.
Cagle is brave -- and at the same time smart -- in staying in this race with Ralph Reed. Running someone's campaign is very different from being a candidate, as Reed is finding out. Stranger things could happen that end up with Cagle prevailing, although at this time I predict a blowout.
The blowout stuff assumes Tom DeLay does not get to be a yoke around Reed's political neck. For as Bill Shipp observed last week:
If state senator Cagle succeeds in identifying Reed with DeLay and D.C. sleaze, then the lawmaker from Gainesville may defeat Georgia's most famous national political operative. Reed's long-term ambitions might end with a knockout in his first election bout.
And at the moment, in the words of the Dean,
[t]he Washington media have painted DeLay and Reed as nearly joined at the hip in a series of shadowy lobbying efforts.
Continuing, the Dean notes:
Reed undoubtedly understands the danger. To survive politically in Georgia, Reed must figure out how to shed his growing reputation as the Great American Wheeler-Dealer. He also must put distance between himself and DeLay and similar high-rolling, pseudo-conservative power brokers in Washington.
To do that may not be easy. Even so, Reed is now a favorite to win easily the lieutenant governor's office. To some observers, his advantages appear almost insurmountable. He is well known, even if he is not universally adored. More important, Reed has access to millions of political dollars. He can not only finance his own campaign for high office, he also can steer huge sums to other state Republican office-seekers. Overnight, Reed could become a Georgia kingmaker, the likes of which we have not seen since the demise of the Talmadges.
Alas, while cash may buy the affection of fellow candidates, it does not always engender love from the multitudes. (See Gov. Roy Barnes' 2002 campaign.) To persuade voters he is clean despite daily headlines suggesting otherwise, Reed needs to renounce some of his associates. To do so, of course, could shut off the money spigot. Without access to treasure troves, Reed is just another pretty face in the religious right's choir.
However, Reed is not alone in needing to sever national connections. He is simply the most visible symbol of having to bear the growing burden of being a national Republican guy.
Ironically, Georgia Republicans are slowly sinking into the same quicksand that finally engulfed Georgia Democrats. They are in danger of becoming too closely identified with their national administration.
At the moment, rising fuel prices, a shaky stock market, more job losses, a skyrocketing national debt, continuing casualties in Iraq, unabated illegal immigration, endangered Social Security benefits - not to mention the DeLay-connected scandals - all bear the stamp of the Washington Republican administration.
In such an uncertain atmosphere, rafter-rattling rhetoric about family values, activist judges and the ownership society ring hollow.
Many voters, including genuinely conservative ones, increasingly view the Republican agenda as anti-middle class.
All of which brings us back to Cagle versus Reed. Cagle is the quintessential local boy, a low-key legislator with roots deep in the red clay. Reed, on the other hand, is a national lightning rod for controversy, right alongside DeLay.
By the time the 2006 primaries are held, the Reed-Cagle GOP contest may energize a turnout of voters so large it will eclipse the Democratic gubernatorial primary between Cathy Cox and Mark Taylor.
Some potential voters for Cox and Taylor may abandon the Democrats to participate in the GOP primary - just to cast a ballot against Reed and his money bags.
In the end, the Reed candidacy may generate a political tsunami - one that creates havoc across party lines and shakes up Georgia government for years to come.
_______________
Is such possible? Not given the makeup of those who will vote in the Republican primary in 2006. Conventional wisdom is that in order to win, a Republican must veer right for the primary, and then veer back left toward the center for the general election.
Ralph Reed won't have to worry about doing any veering, and that is why I think his running for lieutenant governor in 2006 is the best thing that could have happened to the Democratic Party in Georgia.
Ironically, Reed's running for becoming the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor is going to drastically help our party's chances of reclaiming the governor's mansion. This is because the contrast between the GOP and the Democratic parties will seldom be as apparent.
And this will be the case regardless of whether the Democratic nominee is Mark Taylor or Cathy Cox.
_______________
This post concerned the GOP candidates for lieutenant governor.
What about the Democrats? Is there any update in this department? Not really. How about if there is no news, make some. Good thinking, as long as it is good news. Go to page two, in this case, the below post that precedes this one . . . .
posted by Sid Cottingham | 5:01 AM
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