New Pope Could Influence Political Life in America.

The death of Pope John Paul II came at a time when leaders of the Roman Catholic Church, reflecting the tone set by the Vatican, have become increasingly assertive in American political life. Their stance has created strains with some Catholic Democrats just as the White House has sought to make inroads with the once solidly Democratic Catholic constituency.

Several Catholic academics and elected officials said on Sunday that the shift - highlighted last year when some church leaders said Senator John Kerry should be denied communion because he supports abortion rights - reflected the tone set by a pope who was known for being conservative and for being willing to confront governments to press his views. They said the choice of the next pontiff could thus prove nearly as important for American political life as for the Vatican itself, as Democrats and Republicans here face increasingly pitched battles over judicial nominations, abortion, gay rights and euthanasia.

"I've seen an increase in directly political kinds of activity: what the responsibilities of Catholics are, how they should vote, etc.," said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University and the author of numerous books and articles on religion and politics. "Some Vatican officials are pressing for more direct activism in public life and are willing to be more critical of public policy figures who do not take what they consider to be the right positions on policy issues."

The attempt by some Catholic Church leaders to influence American policy goes back at least to the 1930's, when bishops pressed President Franklin D. Roosevelt to create Social Security.

[I]n recent years, the emphasis has shifted away from fighting poverty and standing up for civil rights, issues associated with the Democratic Party, and toward issues like opposition to abortion, gay rights and euthanasia, issues that Mr. Bush and the Republicans have embraced.

At times last year, this assertiveness went beyond policy and into electoral politics, as some bishops hinted that their parishioners should vote for Mr. Bush instead of Mr. Kerry.

The rising assertiveness of some church leaders is particularly significant for American politics because President Bush has been making a concerted effort to win support among Catholic voters. Mr. Bush's efforts are part of an overall drive by his chief adviser, Karl Rove, to make inroads among typically Democratic groups of voters.

Mr. Bush assembled a group of Catholic advisers and began meeting with them regularly as soon as he entered the White House.

There is evidence that Mr. Bush has had some success in this regard. In last year's presidential election, Catholics supported Mr. Bush over Mr. Kerry, a Roman Catholic, by 52 percent to 47 percent, according to a survey of voters leaving the polls. Catholics made up 27 percent of the electorate last year, but they are disproportionately clustered in swing states, particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania, making them an important target in presidential campaigns.

Roman Catholics, however, are hardly a unified bloc of voters, and some analysts suggested on Sunday that the prominent bishops at the forefront of these recent battles are more conservative than most Catholic voters or, indeed, their fellow bishops.

Most polls show that Catholics support at least some access to abortion.

Mr. Kerry was the third Catholic who has won a major party's nomination for president; Kennedy was the only Catholic to have been elected president. After Mr. Kerry's defeat, a number of Democrats said they could not see how in this environment a Catholic Democrat could win the presidency, given that he or she would almost certainly have to support abortion rights to win the nomination.

Some Catholic leaders suggested it would be a mistake for the next pope to continue down the road of involvement in politics and policy.

"I really think it was counterproductive to have done what was done in the last election," said Margaret O'Brien Steinfels, a former editor of Commonweal, the magazine of the Catholic laity. "I don't think it's going to work. I think it's a mistake for bishops to get involved to that degree in policy. I don't think the bishops should tell people who they should vote for. All they do is dilute their own credibility."

(4-4-05, The New York Times.)