Frequency of church attendance as predictor of voting behavior: Study of Jews mimics a powerful trend among Catholics and Protestants.
Excerpts from:
Bush Made Inroads Among Jewish Voters, Study Shows
Those who attended weekly religious services were split between the president and Kerry.
By Ronald Brownstein
The Los Angeles Times
April 12, 2005
Jewish voters remained overwhelmingly Democratic in the 2004 presidential election, but President Bush made inroads with those who attend religious services most often, according to a study to be released today.
Before the election, some analysts predicted that Bush would make substantial gains among Jews because of his strong support for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who met with the president Monday at Bush's Texas ranch.
But the initial Edison/Mitofsky National Election Pool exit poll had found that Jews preferred the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, over Bush by 74% to 25%.
[A new] study concluded that Kerry's percentage was slightly larger than originally reported, at about 77% to 22%.
Either way, the results represented only a small change from the last few elections. In 2000, exit polls found that Al Gore won 79% of the Jewish vote; Bill Clinton carried 78% in 1996 and a record 80% in 1992. Republicans held Democrats to two-thirds or less of the Jewish vote during the three elections of the 1980s — Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988.
The study found that the gender gap among Jews was much wider than among the population overall. Bush carried just 16% of Jewish women, the study found, but 28% of men.
He ran especially well with Jewish men under 30, carrying 35% of them, compared with 60% for Kerry.
By comparison, young Jewish women preferred Kerry by a ratio of more than 7 to 1, the survey found. Kerry's best group was Jewish women over 60, who backed him over Bush 10 to 1, the study calculated.
Jews who attended religious services weekly split their votes evenly between Bush and Kerry, while Kerry amassed big leads among those who attended less often.
That mimics a powerful trend among Catholics and Protestants. Frequency of church attendance has become one of the strongest predictors of voting behavior, with those who worship most regularly leaning Republican and those who attend less often voting more Democratic.
Bush Made Inroads Among Jewish Voters, Study Shows
Those who attended weekly religious services were split between the president and Kerry.
By Ronald Brownstein
The Los Angeles Times
April 12, 2005
Jewish voters remained overwhelmingly Democratic in the 2004 presidential election, but President Bush made inroads with those who attend religious services most often, according to a study to be released today.
Before the election, some analysts predicted that Bush would make substantial gains among Jews because of his strong support for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who met with the president Monday at Bush's Texas ranch.
But the initial Edison/Mitofsky National Election Pool exit poll had found that Jews preferred the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, over Bush by 74% to 25%.
[A new] study concluded that Kerry's percentage was slightly larger than originally reported, at about 77% to 22%.
Either way, the results represented only a small change from the last few elections. In 2000, exit polls found that Al Gore won 79% of the Jewish vote; Bill Clinton carried 78% in 1996 and a record 80% in 1992. Republicans held Democrats to two-thirds or less of the Jewish vote during the three elections of the 1980s — Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988.
The study found that the gender gap among Jews was much wider than among the population overall. Bush carried just 16% of Jewish women, the study found, but 28% of men.
He ran especially well with Jewish men under 30, carrying 35% of them, compared with 60% for Kerry.
By comparison, young Jewish women preferred Kerry by a ratio of more than 7 to 1, the survey found. Kerry's best group was Jewish women over 60, who backed him over Bush 10 to 1, the study calculated.
Jews who attended religious services weekly split their votes evenly between Bush and Kerry, while Kerry amassed big leads among those who attended less often.
That mimics a powerful trend among Catholics and Protestants. Frequency of church attendance has become one of the strongest predictors of voting behavior, with those who worship most regularly leaning Republican and those who attend less often voting more Democratic.
posted by Sid Cottingham | 5:57 AM
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