I accept the challenge to a duel. Swords or pistols you ask. Neither. Hard work, a message & votes will be our weapons. (& don't kill the messenger.)
This weekend ajc associate editorial page editor Jim Wooten has a powerful message for our Party. Those wishing to kill the messenger can do so in their own medium as they remain in a state of denial.
I hereby accept Mr. Wooten's implicit challenge, and hereby pledge to do all I can and then some to assure that every person whose name appears below in bold is reelected in Nov. 2006, along with also electing and reelecting other good Democrats not named, whether in the Georgia House and Senate.
We have our work cut out for us, and in accepting Mr. Wooten's challenge, I invite you to join me.
And we must realize -- as noted in Mr. Wooten's column -- that in meeting the challenge, the challenge is indeed twofold. First, we have the challenge from without -- the GOP -- and second, and just as important, is the challenge from within, that being to go to great lengths to avoid not all singing the same song.
_______________
Dems need rural whites
Jim Wooten
The Atlanta Journal and Constitution
December 3, 2004
As the new year approaches, major questions loom for Georgia's two dominant political parties. Both have little time — and control of state government at stake.
For Republicans, it's how to govern. Glenn Richardson (R-Dallas), who will be speaker of the Georgia House next year, has begun to lay the groundwork. Fewer bills will pass and the ones that do will be judged on four points, he said. Among them: Whether they reduce the size of government, strengthen the traditional family, lower the tax burden or increase personal responsibility. "Unless proposed legislation answers yes to one of these questions, it will face a difficult course," he said.
For Democrats, and more specifically for the black and urban caucuses, a window exists. The window is no more than a year. The task is to make themselves presentable to whites outside the Perimeter. They're getting killed there.
Rural white Democrats are an endangered species under the Gold Dome. How endangered? Analysis of voting patterns in House races by GOP consultant Dan O'Connor reveals a key indicator to be the percentage of black voter registration. Districts where it's more than 30 percent tend to elect Democrats; under 30, Republicans. In the state Senate, Republicans hold every seat in the state in districts with less than 30 percent black voter registration.
In the House, Republicans have 99 seats, Democrats 81. Of the 99, only five have more than 30 percent black registration. Of the 81 held by Democrats, 64 are 30-plus.
Blacks are 27.3 percent of the state's registered voters, and 25.6 percent of the districts in the Georgia House are majority black, with two more on the cusp. Of those 46, white Democrats hold 11, mostly in Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton. Thirty-five black Democrats represent majority-black districts.
Three white Democrats outside metro Atlanta represent majority black districts: Reps. Pete Warren of Augusta (53 percent), Tom Bordeaux of Savannah (54) and Debbie G. Buckner of Junction City, near Columbus (52).
Three blacks come from majority white districts: Reps. Keith Heard (D-Athens, 39 percent black), Carl Von Epps (D-LaGrange, 41 percent) and Willie Talton (R-Warner Robins, 31 percent).
Two other districts are likely to become majority black before the next election: The Cobb County district along U.S. 41 between the Chattahoochee River and Marietta, now represented by white Democrat Rob Teilhet, and the east central Georgia district represented by white Democrat Jimmy Lord of Sandersville.
Based on racial voting patterns, the vulnerable Republicans are all newly elected: Gene Maddox of Cairo, David Knight of Griffin, Allen Freeman of Macon, Robert Mumford of Conyers, and Talton.
Democrats have 13 rural whites whose successors are likely to be Republican. They include the current House speaker, Terry Coleman of Eastman, and the speaker pro tem, DuBose Porter of Dublin. Others are Paul Smith of Rome, Bill Cummings of Rockmart, Charles Jenkins of Blairsville, Barbara Massey Reece of Menlo, Jeanette Jamison of Toccoa, Alan Powell of Hartwell, Robert Ray of Fort Valley, Greg Morris of Vidalia, Butch Parrish of Swainsboro, Ellis Black of Valdosta and Jay Shaw of Lakeland.
The three party switchers — Chuck Sims of Douglas, Penny Houston of Nashville and Hinson Mosley of Jesup — were in the endangered category.
The power struggle within the Democratic Party is over. Blacks and beltway Democrats now dominate. It's their voice Georgians will hear. They will decide how moderate or shrill it is.
Their current voice is unelectable statewide. Time is short. The party is at real risk of falling into long-term minority status in both the House and Senate. By the end of 2005, before qualifying begins for the 2006 races, it had better find a voice that appeals to whites in rural Georgia.
_______________
In issuing his challenge, I truly believe Mr. Wooten has given our Party an early Christmas present. From one South Georgian to another, I say to Jim Wooten: "Thanks, we needed that."
I hereby accept Mr. Wooten's implicit challenge, and hereby pledge to do all I can and then some to assure that every person whose name appears below in bold is reelected in Nov. 2006, along with also electing and reelecting other good Democrats not named, whether in the Georgia House and Senate.
We have our work cut out for us, and in accepting Mr. Wooten's challenge, I invite you to join me.
And we must realize -- as noted in Mr. Wooten's column -- that in meeting the challenge, the challenge is indeed twofold. First, we have the challenge from without -- the GOP -- and second, and just as important, is the challenge from within, that being to go to great lengths to avoid not all singing the same song.
_______________
Dems need rural whites
Jim Wooten
The Atlanta Journal and Constitution
December 3, 2004
As the new year approaches, major questions loom for Georgia's two dominant political parties. Both have little time — and control of state government at stake.
For Republicans, it's how to govern. Glenn Richardson (R-Dallas), who will be speaker of the Georgia House next year, has begun to lay the groundwork. Fewer bills will pass and the ones that do will be judged on four points, he said. Among them: Whether they reduce the size of government, strengthen the traditional family, lower the tax burden or increase personal responsibility. "Unless proposed legislation answers yes to one of these questions, it will face a difficult course," he said.
For Democrats, and more specifically for the black and urban caucuses, a window exists. The window is no more than a year. The task is to make themselves presentable to whites outside the Perimeter. They're getting killed there.
Rural white Democrats are an endangered species under the Gold Dome. How endangered? Analysis of voting patterns in House races by GOP consultant Dan O'Connor reveals a key indicator to be the percentage of black voter registration. Districts where it's more than 30 percent tend to elect Democrats; under 30, Republicans. In the state Senate, Republicans hold every seat in the state in districts with less than 30 percent black voter registration.
In the House, Republicans have 99 seats, Democrats 81. Of the 99, only five have more than 30 percent black registration. Of the 81 held by Democrats, 64 are 30-plus.
Blacks are 27.3 percent of the state's registered voters, and 25.6 percent of the districts in the Georgia House are majority black, with two more on the cusp. Of those 46, white Democrats hold 11, mostly in Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton. Thirty-five black Democrats represent majority-black districts.
Three white Democrats outside metro Atlanta represent majority black districts: Reps. Pete Warren of Augusta (53 percent), Tom Bordeaux of Savannah (54) and Debbie G. Buckner of Junction City, near Columbus (52).
Three blacks come from majority white districts: Reps. Keith Heard (D-Athens, 39 percent black), Carl Von Epps (D-LaGrange, 41 percent) and Willie Talton (R-Warner Robins, 31 percent).
Two other districts are likely to become majority black before the next election: The Cobb County district along U.S. 41 between the Chattahoochee River and Marietta, now represented by white Democrat Rob Teilhet, and the east central Georgia district represented by white Democrat Jimmy Lord of Sandersville.
Based on racial voting patterns, the vulnerable Republicans are all newly elected: Gene Maddox of Cairo, David Knight of Griffin, Allen Freeman of Macon, Robert Mumford of Conyers, and Talton.
Democrats have 13 rural whites whose successors are likely to be Republican. They include the current House speaker, Terry Coleman of Eastman, and the speaker pro tem, DuBose Porter of Dublin. Others are Paul Smith of Rome, Bill Cummings of Rockmart, Charles Jenkins of Blairsville, Barbara Massey Reece of Menlo, Jeanette Jamison of Toccoa, Alan Powell of Hartwell, Robert Ray of Fort Valley, Greg Morris of Vidalia, Butch Parrish of Swainsboro, Ellis Black of Valdosta and Jay Shaw of Lakeland.
The three party switchers — Chuck Sims of Douglas, Penny Houston of Nashville and Hinson Mosley of Jesup — were in the endangered category.
The power struggle within the Democratic Party is over. Blacks and beltway Democrats now dominate. It's their voice Georgians will hear. They will decide how moderate or shrill it is.
Their current voice is unelectable statewide. Time is short. The party is at real risk of falling into long-term minority status in both the House and Senate. By the end of 2005, before qualifying begins for the 2006 races, it had better find a voice that appeals to whites in rural Georgia.
_______________
In issuing his challenge, I truly believe Mr. Wooten has given our Party an early Christmas present. From one South Georgian to another, I say to Jim Wooten: "Thanks, we needed that."
posted by Sid Cottingham | 4:32 PM
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