A kinder, gentler challenge to a duel -- Sid vs. the Dean on Endorsing Nov. 2 same-sex marriage amendment
This week Georgia's seldom-wrong Dean of Georgia Politics Bill Shipp offers what he asserts is a safe prediction -- "Georgians will vote for the anti-gay marriage amendment by a greater percentage than they will support George W. Bush for president, and Bush is poised to sweep Georgia by a wide margin."
Well, although Mrs. Shipp will quickly tell you Mr. Shipp is seldom right about anything outside the area of politics (heck, my Sally doesn't even give me the benefit of an exception; she says she is always right and me wrong), Mrs. Shipp concedes that in his area of expertise, the Dean has only been wrong on a couple of occasions in the past thirty years. Not a bad record.
(# 1 in 1972: “Of all the things I have predicted, I am only certain of one: Sam Nunn will not be elected to the United States Senate.” # 2 in 2002: Who didn't miss this one with Roy Barnes and Sonny Perdue.)
Will Bush carry Georgia? Of course he will. By a wide margin? Yes again.
Will the vote percentage for the anti-gay marriage amendment be even larger? If the Dean says it, count on it.
Bill Shipp notes that "[i]f the polls are even close to accurate, voters will approve the marriage amendment by an eye-popping landslide."
Well, Mr. Shipp could have added that just last month in Missouri over 71% of the voters backed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, making Missouri the first American state to do so, and that the current thinking is that this poll would set the tone for similar votes taking place in up to 12 other states this year, including Georgia.
So Cottingham, you agree with all that the Dean says on this topic. What's that bit about your challenge?
Well, the Dean in his column also makes an observation that while it probably reflects conventional thinking, is something I hope proves to be wrong. He writes:
"And a Georgia candidate, regardless of party affiliation, who doesn’t immediately endorse the amendment and stump the state in favor of it has missed an almost risk-free opportunity."
Were I advising a candidate, I would advise to proceed with caution in this regard. How things will play out perception wise in October at this time is not a given, and I think may well be determined by unrelated factors and issues.
For example, whether yellow dog Democrats like hearing the truth or not, Kerry baited his longtime and known opponents to do further battle by his emphasis on Vietnam during the convention. And today's news that Kerry is bringing John Sasso on board his campaign is a signal that this could turn into a no holes barred presidential election.
If the public tires of Vietnam and more negative ads by both the Bush and Kerry camps by November 2, it is conceivable that too much negativity by lesser candidates could run the risk of a backlash.
Our Georgia candidates have many, many state issues without having to hitch their wagon to a social and personal rather than a political issue.
It is possible that jumping on the anti-gay marriage amendment wagon won't be risk-free, and rather could be perceived as being a ploy just to get votes and win an election, maybe mean-spirited, and even possibly as representing demagoguery. The whole thing is, after all, nothing but gay bashing. Regardless of their personal feelings -- whether pro and con on the issue itself -- this much the public does recognizes.
As a candidate thinks signing up for the gay bashing party, he/she should recall our Veep's quote in our post of 8-25-04 about his own family situation:
"Vice President's Cheney says that he sees gay marriage as a state issue, stating that he and his wife "Lynne . . . have a gay daughter, so it's an issue that our family is very familiar with. . . . With respect to the question of relationships, my general view is that freedom means freedom for everyone. People . . . ought to be free to enter into any kind of relationship they want to."
Regardless, I know one thing. Despite his call, Mr. Shipp will tell you that he hopes that I am right.
Well, although Mrs. Shipp will quickly tell you Mr. Shipp is seldom right about anything outside the area of politics (heck, my Sally doesn't even give me the benefit of an exception; she says she is always right and me wrong), Mrs. Shipp concedes that in his area of expertise, the Dean has only been wrong on a couple of occasions in the past thirty years. Not a bad record.
(# 1 in 1972: “Of all the things I have predicted, I am only certain of one: Sam Nunn will not be elected to the United States Senate.” # 2 in 2002: Who didn't miss this one with Roy Barnes and Sonny Perdue.)
Will Bush carry Georgia? Of course he will. By a wide margin? Yes again.
Will the vote percentage for the anti-gay marriage amendment be even larger? If the Dean says it, count on it.
Bill Shipp notes that "[i]f the polls are even close to accurate, voters will approve the marriage amendment by an eye-popping landslide."
Well, Mr. Shipp could have added that just last month in Missouri over 71% of the voters backed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, making Missouri the first American state to do so, and that the current thinking is that this poll would set the tone for similar votes taking place in up to 12 other states this year, including Georgia.
So Cottingham, you agree with all that the Dean says on this topic. What's that bit about your challenge?
Well, the Dean in his column also makes an observation that while it probably reflects conventional thinking, is something I hope proves to be wrong. He writes:
"And a Georgia candidate, regardless of party affiliation, who doesn’t immediately endorse the amendment and stump the state in favor of it has missed an almost risk-free opportunity."
Were I advising a candidate, I would advise to proceed with caution in this regard. How things will play out perception wise in October at this time is not a given, and I think may well be determined by unrelated factors and issues.
For example, whether yellow dog Democrats like hearing the truth or not, Kerry baited his longtime and known opponents to do further battle by his emphasis on Vietnam during the convention. And today's news that Kerry is bringing John Sasso on board his campaign is a signal that this could turn into a no holes barred presidential election.
If the public tires of Vietnam and more negative ads by both the Bush and Kerry camps by November 2, it is conceivable that too much negativity by lesser candidates could run the risk of a backlash.
Our Georgia candidates have many, many state issues without having to hitch their wagon to a social and personal rather than a political issue.
It is possible that jumping on the anti-gay marriage amendment wagon won't be risk-free, and rather could be perceived as being a ploy just to get votes and win an election, maybe mean-spirited, and even possibly as representing demagoguery. The whole thing is, after all, nothing but gay bashing. Regardless of their personal feelings -- whether pro and con on the issue itself -- this much the public does recognizes.
As a candidate thinks signing up for the gay bashing party, he/she should recall our Veep's quote in our post of 8-25-04 about his own family situation:
"Vice President's Cheney says that he sees gay marriage as a state issue, stating that he and his wife "Lynne . . . have a gay daughter, so it's an issue that our family is very familiar with. . . . With respect to the question of relationships, my general view is that freedom means freedom for everyone. People . . . ought to be free to enter into any kind of relationship they want to."
Regardless, I know one thing. Despite his call, Mr. Shipp will tell you that he hopes that I am right.
posted by Sid Cottingham | 6:32 AM
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