Musings by Bill Shipp

My buddy Bill Shipp writes on July 19:

If you're into reading tea leaves or gazing into a crystal ball, then Tuesday's primary election should be a delight. A half-dozen contests contain important clues to Georgia's political future.

For instance:

GOV. SONNY PERDUE'S FORTUNES: Though the governor does not stand for re-election for two years, at least two '04 primary battles -- one for Supreme Court justice, the other for a state Senate seat -- emit important signals regarding Perdue's present and future standing with the voters.

Former Superior Court Judge Grant Brantley is the governor's guy against incumbent Supreme Court Justice Leah Sears. Perdue openly solicited opposition to Sears several months ago, contending she was an activist judge who is soft on "family values." She also ruled against him in a lawsuit.

Though Perdue now claims he has endorsed no one, his top legal adviser, former Georgia Attorney General Mike Bowers, is directing Brantley's bid. Many leading lights of the state bar support Sears.

If Sears wins, she will shortly move up to chief justice, the first black woman in Georgia to hold such a position, and immediately become a new symbol of minority, feminist and anti-Perdue power. The governor would not be likely to appeal any case to the state Supreme Court in the near future.

However, a Brantley victory would send a warning message to previously comfortable incumbent judges: "Look out! You are no longer safe." More election challenges to sitting judges would definitely be in the cards. The religious right also is praying for a Brantley victory. If he loses, it's back to selling prayer rugs on the radio.

No matter who wins, this expensive and mean fight is all but certain to trigger a move toward reforming the way Georgia judges are selected. These new all-out, free-to-say-anything election campaigns make jurists squirm in their legal robes.

The other Perdue bellwether: Former state Rep. Lauren "Bubba" McDonald of Forsyth County, easily the greatest Irish baritone ever to enter Georgia politics, is challenging state Senate Majority Leader Bill Stephens of Canton, a onetime flack for Gov. Zell Miller.

Gov. Perdue supports Stephens. Former all-time great basketball coach Garland Pinholster, an ex-legislator and Republican organizer, is helping Stephens.

A Stephens victory: Good omen for Perdue. A McDonald win: The governor should not return to Senate District 27 without extra security.

SENATE GOP PRIMARY: If frontrunner Congressman Johnny Isakson wins the primary without a runoff, mainstream and pragmatist Republicans should celebrate. Their karma is good and their future bright.

If African-American Herman Cain finishes second and forces Isakson into a runoff, Republicans can cancel their next session with the analyst. Their racial guilt will have been assuaged. But they don't have to worry. Cain could never win a runoff. Or could he?

If Congressman Mac Collins makes the runoff, Democrat-turned-Republican good old boys can break out the Pabst Blue Ribbon. The Longneck Party is still in the hunt with Collins leading the pack.

No matter what happens, be certain of this: Georgia is the loser. Both Isakson and Collins are valuable congressmen. When the smoke clears, one will be looking for work.

SENATE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY: A runoff is inevitable -- maybe. So what does it mean if --

* Multimillionaire Cliff Oxford runs first? Money talks.

* Congresswoman Denise Majette captures first? Race dominates.

* Douglas lawyer Sid Cottingham finishes second? Miracles happen.

* Lawyer and anti-war activist Jim Finkelstein finishes second? The invasion of Iraq was an even worse idea than we first thought.

* State Rep. Mary Squires ranks second? The voting machines failed.

* Commercial real estate agent Gorvind N. Patel comes in second? Martians have invaded.

CONGRESS (DISTRICT 4-Democrat): How should a possible Cynthia McKinney victory be interpreted? See Majette.

If state Sen. Liane Levetan garners second place, see Oxford entry for an explanation.

If Atlanta City Council President Cathy Woolard runs No. 2, see Cottingham.

CONGRESS (DISTRICT 6-Republican): A first-place finish for state Sen. Tom Price is likely. But running number one in the primary does not mean he's certain to go to Congress to succeed Isakson.

The Aug. 10 runoff favors the second-place finisher, probably Chuck Clay or Robert Lamutt. A second-place finish by Clay will mean that some of his friends ignored his advertising and voted for him anyway. Lamutt's TV talking dog (a Saint Bernard named Ollie) deserves all the credit in that campaign. In fact, Lamutt's TV campaign may establish a new standard for political advertising in Georgia. In the future, a talking dog may replace campaign promises as a must ingredient for every congressional candidate.

One other thing, if Jeopardy calls and says, "3.8 million, 77 and 4," you should respond with "How many voters are registered for the Georgia primary?" and "How many legislators and Georgia members of Congress can go fishing on Tuesday because they have no opposition?"

Don't forget to vote.

END OF BILL SHIPP's column. But I must ask the rhetorical question -- How can you help but love the guy. Page 2

Bill Shipp's musings were pre-July 20. Mine that follow are post-July 20, and are made in the context of his comments about Majette (race) and Oxford (money).

I am excited about the Democratic Party's future in Georgia after our primary on July 20.

I would have been very concerned about our Party's future if Denise Majette had won in a landslide on July 20; she did not.

Majette captured only 41%, despite: (1) having been the only candidate with any significant pre-campaign name recognition; (2) having raised the most funds among the Democratic candidates (some $1.21 million, with most of this having been contributed in anticipation of her seeking re-election to her U.S. House seat); and (3) having spent heavily for the primary election.

Majette was followed in votes and contributions by Cliff Oxford who financed much of his own campaign. Of his $1.02 million in donations, all but $32,590 came from the candidate, which amount included a $500 contribution from Gov. Roy Barnes (Barnes' name, like that of President Carter, is not mentioned by Oxford on the campaign trail.

Carter's name used to be part of Oxford's stump speech as having been one of the two persons who recruited him to run, the other having been N.J. Sen. Jon Corzine. Carter's name is no longer used, and has been substituted with that of Sen. Tom Daschle. (Barnes, like Oxford, of course lives in Cobb County where Oxford received only 15% of the Democratic vote).

Having spent heavily in blanketing the airways in recent weeks, Oxford received 20% of the primary vote behind Majette's 41%. Given Oxford's problems that have plagued him thoughout the campaign, I would have been discouraged had this percentage been a whole lot higher notwithstanding the large amount he spent on television.

My hesitation to endorse anyone is based in part on the views all of the other candidates expressed during the campaign concerning Iraq, and these same views were repeated during the first televised debate on WSB.

I expressed my view on this topic during the WSB debate by saying that I was a candidate secondarily; first and foremost I am an American. Someone else can criticize in this area; I pass. As our mothers taught us, two wrongs don't make a right, and if there have been any wrongs to date, I am not going to add to them by not backing 100% our soldiers both in Iraq and elsewhere.

Sen. Russell strongly advised Pres. Kennedy against involvement in Vietnam. Once the large-scale American commitment was made, however, Russell became hawkish in advocating a vigorous prosecution of the war, noting that it was his philosophy that "where the American flag is committed, I am committed."

While I am not a hawk with regard to Iraq, since 9/11 an American flag has been in my lapel and one has flown at my home. I did not remove or take down either flag when we invaded Iraq.

History probably will show that conditions in Iraq did not merit war. But we cannot just abandon our efforts there on a timeline espoused by civilians that may sound appealing to many who are frustrated with this unpopular war.

I let Mary Squires go unchallenged with stating on many occasions during the campaign that she had a more extensive military background that any other candidate. She did not.

Drawing on my experiences as both a civilian and a military officer, I believe that our now few world allies -- including pro-American Europeans and especially the British -- relied on America not just for power with respect to Iraq, but for judgment and leadership. And hopefully they realize that it was not America, but rather the judgment and leadership of the Bush administration that failed them.

But regardless of how and why we are in Iraq, we are there, and if we do not see it through, it is going to be a worst disaster in the region than it is now.