I've got some good news and . . . (A new poll on Iraq)

I've got some bad news.

In our August 15 post below we noted: "One score and four years ago an election was influenced by a four letter word -- Iran. One score and four years later an election will be determined by a four letter word -- Iraq."

The headline in a Washington Post article today discussing the results of a new poll confirms this and says it all: "How U.S. Fares in Iraq May Sway Swing Voters."

Summary: Foreign policy and national security concerns are considered more important by Americans this campaign year than at any time since the Vietnam War, and perceptions of success or failure in Iraq could be dominant in swaying swing voters in November

The good news: On Iraq, more than a month after the transfer of political power to an interim government, the survey found that about half of Americans surveyed -- 52 percent -- disapproved of the president's management of Iraq policy. Overall, 58 percent said the Bush administration did not have a "clear plan" for bringing Iraq to a "successful conclusion" -- a proportion that grew among swing voters, to 62 percent.

The bad news: Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) is not yet succeeding in convincing swing voters that he provides a viable alternative vision, the pollsters found.

"Iraq could be the tipping point," said Pew Director Andrew Kohut in an interview. "But even though things are bad in Iraq . . . Kerry hasn't made the sale on Iraq either. People are not more likely to say they have confidence in him than they have confidence in Bush, whom they disapprove of."