Shifting Demographics Tilt Presidential Races in American Suburbs - Younger, More Affluent New Residents Are Reshaping the Vote in Metropolitan Regions of Denver, Atlanta, Washington, D.C.

The Citifying Suburbs

In the past decade metropolitan areas in states that are crucial to the electoral map have taken on more of the traits of their core cities—growing more urban, more diverse and better educated.

 

From The Wall Street Journal:

LEESBURG, Va.—This was a pastoral, conservative Washington suburb until a decade ago, when new jobs sprouting in and around the U.S. capital began drawing younger, more affluent people like Bill and Heather King.

Mr. King, a traffic engineer, and Dr. King, a hospital pediatrician, sought to live among other young professionals in a place with the vibrancy of their urban hometowns—qualities they say they found in this former colonial hamlet.

 

Not long ago, the couple, both 33 years old, might have skipped over Leesburg, the seat of Loudoun County. But the self-described "Democratic-leaning" Kings are among a new crop of residents sinking roots in formerly reliable Republican Party strongholds, reshaping older suburbs in the metropolitan regions of Denver; Columbus, Ohio; Atlanta; Washington and elsewhere.

 

These neighborhoods—so-called mature suburbs that sprouted in the decades after World War II—have become so densely populated over the past decade that they more closely resemble the big cities nearby. The U.S. census now classifies the counties that contain them as "urban."
 

The population of mature suburbs in the U.S. grew to about 60 million in 2010 from about 51 million a decade earlier, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of census data.
 

The newer residents look, shop and vote more like urban dwellers than suburbanites of the past. They bring money and diversity to their neighborhoods, supported by jobs in government, academics and technology.

 

Politically, Democrats see opportunity; Republicans see a challenge. Growth in mature suburbs has helped the Democrats in presidential contests.
 

George W. Bush, the most recent GOP president, built his two election victories, in part, on broad suburban support. To win the White House in 2016, Republicans must retain their exurban and rural strongholds, while beating back the growing Democratic tide in the suburbs.
 

From 2000 to 2012, the three mature-suburb counties around Atlanta all grew by double-digits, all saw their incomes rise and all cast a higher percentage of votes for Barack Obama in 2012 than for Al Gore in 2000.

 

In Franklin County, a mature-suburb county that holds Columbus, Ohio, the population grew by 12% and median household income climbed by about $8,000 over the same period. Democratic voting also surged: Mr. Obama took 60% of the county vote in 2012, compared with 49% for Mr. Gore in 2000.

 

The population of the two mature-suburb counties around Denver also grew over the same time, along with median household income. In the 2000 contest, Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush split the counties; in 2012, Mr. Obama won both.

 

Vote totals from the 2012 presidential election show Mr. Obama won the most populous chunk of the suburbs, ceding only the more sparsely-populated exurban reaches to Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

In 2000, the mature-suburb counties split 48% for Messrs. Gore and Bush. In 2012, 52% voted for Mr. Obama and 46% for Mr. Romney.

 

A Journal analysis of voting patterns in metropolitan regions of Columbus, Denver and Atlanta—which include their mature suburbs—shows that voters went from favoring Mr. Bush or splitting the vote with Mr. Gore in 2000, to favoring Mr. Obama in 2012, by large margins in some cases.

The surge in suburban population isn't all flight from adjacent cities, which was typical a generation ago. Instead, brains and money from across the U.S. are being lured to more concentrated geographic regions.

 

Loudoun County is in northern Virginia, a battleground state. It is the wealthiest county in the U.S. and one of the fastest-growing. Between 2000 and 2013, the county's population doubled to 350,000. Its once sleepy county seat, Leesburg, is a boomtown, too: Its population was 42,936 in 2012, a surge of 62% since 2000.

 

Minority residents account for 58% of Loudoun County's growth from 2000 to 2012, with Asians and Latinos making up the bulk of the increase, census data shows. Over the same period, the proportion of county residents born abroad grew from 11% to nearly a quarter.
 

Change has come with the expansion of Dulles International Airport, a planned extension of the Washington subway, and, earlier, the arrival of nearby technology businesses such as AOL Inc., and Amazon.com Inc.

 

"A city is a fun place to be when you're young," said Mr. King, formerly of Baltimore, who moved to Leesburg last year with his wife and a baby. The couple is expecting again.
 

Mr. King works for Loudoun County's transportation department, where he designs ways to manage traffic and accommodate the Washington subway, which is slated to open a stop here in 2018. His spouse, Dr. King, works at Frederick Memorial Hospital, about 25 minutes away. Together, they earn between $150,000 and $200,000 a year.
 

"People tend to gravitate toward people with whom they feel comfortable," Mr. King said, with Loudoun County becoming "definitely more diverse."
 

Mr. King voted for Mr. Obama in 2012, and Dr. King voted for Ron Paul. They consider themselves political independents.

 

The Kings bought a house with a small yard in a neighborhood walking distance to shopping and a park, as well as biking distance to Mr. King's office. Their block reflects the town's changing landscape: A retired couple lives next door, and down the street is a young professional family from Philadelphia.

 

Today, 23% of Loudoun County residents older than 25 hold a postgraduate degree, compared with about 11% nationally. The median age is 34.6 years old, compared with 37.2 years nationwide. The median household income is $122,000, nearly double the state median. Voters with similar demographic profiles have tended to vote Democratic in recent years, exit poll data shows.
 

The changes have reworked the political and physical landscape of Leesburg—founded in 1758—turning the onetime rural exurb nearly as blue as Fairfax County next door.

 

Retailers and restaurants reflect big-city consumer preferences. The colonial downtown is dotted with gourmet food shops, galleries and antique stores. The former Peoples National Bank is a wine bar and restaurant.

 

The town boasts three Starbucks coffee shops, which scores 136 on the liberal index, with 100 the average, according to data from Experian Consumer Insights, a research firm that studies U.S. shopping behavior and assigns a score to retailers that measures how politically liberal its shoppers are. Down the road in the Dulles Town Center, there is a P.F. Chang's Bistro, 133; and nearby, a Chipotle, 160 on the liberal index. The "Village at Leesburg" blends housing and retail, anchored by a Wegman's gourmet grocery: 125.

 

The chain stores in Leesburg are, with few exceptions, the furthest company outposts from the Washington metro center, essentially marking the capital's new lifestyle frontier, a line that moves farther west each passing year.

 

The town council races are nonpartisan, but candidates' political leanings are generally known. In 1992, former CIA analyst Kristen Umstattd, a Democrat, was elected to the town council and Republican council members held a majority. She became mayor in 2002 and was re-elected in 2012. The population of Leesburg has tripled while Ms. Umstattd has been mayor, and Democrats now dominate the council.

 

Thomas M. Davis III, a former Republican congressman from Fairfax County, a Virginia county closer to Washington where urbanization began in 1980, said GOP candidates must address the local concerns of newer residents if they hope to keep a foothold in changing U.S. suburbs.

 

These voters "are not in love with Democrats," Mr. Davis said. "They're voting for their own interests, and who's going to treat them well."
 

Republicans are losing the suburbs, Mr. Davis said, because fewer Republican moderates—many from centrist suburban neighborhoods—are running for office. Suburban newcomers, he said, "are economically more aligned with the Republican party, but they are just turned off by the social policy."

 

Before retiring from politics in 2008, Mr. Davis won seven terms in Virginia's 11th Congressional District. He championed issues for Latino and Korean constituents, such as immigration reform and a South Korea free trade agreement. He delivered business and transportation development dollars.
 

"There's not a Republican or Democratic way to fix a pothole," Mr. Davis said, paraphrasing Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, a Democrat.
 

The suburban shift is most pronounced in presidential elections. In House midterm elections, candidates can tailor their messages for local constituents—exactly what Mr. Davis is advocating. This year, changing suburbs won't help Democrats hold Senate seats in states where suburban voters are in short supply, including Louisiana, Arkansas and Montana.
 

In the 1980s and 90s, developer Robert Buchanan helped transform Loudoun County from farmland to exurb. But after years of selling sprawl, Mr. Buchanan now preaches more dense, urban-style development. He said a local Republican official spelled out his misgivings: "'You are asking us to bring in more people who will vote us out of office.'"
 

Those who moved to Loudoun County over the past decade triggered a substantial racial and ethnic shift. The non-Hispanic white population dropped from roughly 80% in 2000 to 61% in 2013. The Hispanic population has doubled, to close to 13%. The proportion of Asian residents has grown to 16%, from 5%.

 

The changes present both parties with "a demographic imperative," said Rep. Gerry Connolly, the Democrat who won Mr. Davis's seat in 2008.

His northern Virginia district, he said, "is now almost 50% minority. We're 1.1 million people and 27% foreign born. Which of the two parties will embrace that diversity?"
 

The GOP, he said, "has almost doubled down in doing the opposite. The message is of exclusivity, judgment and disapproval of the fact that [minorities are] here, and their electoral returns in northern Virginia show them the peril of that."

 

In the Virginia governor's race earlier this year, Democrat Terry McAuliffe won with a decisive advantage in these northern Virginia suburbs. He defeated Republican Ken Cuccinelli by about 2.5 percentage points statewide, but 22 points in Fairfax County and eight points in Prince William County. Leesburg went for Mr. McAuliffe 51% to Mr. Cuccinelli's 42%. Mr. Cuccinelli—who carried a well-known record as a social conservative—prevailed only in the more rural west.

 

Voting data shows similar movement in key swing states across the U.S. where growing density and a shifting culture have changed the status quo, including Denver; Columbus, Ohio; and the Research Triangle in North Carolina near Raleigh.

 

In Denver's metropolitan region, Mr. Obama's 2012 vote count was eight percentage points better than Mr. Gore's in 2000: 55% to 47%. He did better than Mr. Gore in metropolitan Columbus, 52.5% to 43.6%. Mr. Obama received 56.6% of the vote compared with 49.2% for Mr. Gore. Most of those gains came from votes in urbanizing suburbs, according to a Journal analysis of the totals.
 

The blue tide of Loudoun County now nudges Purcellville—population 8,300—a GOP-led town west of Leesburg. Here, marketers cater to a more conservative clientele, while preparing for more liberal newcomers.
 

Purcellville's "Gateway Center," built on a former farm, is anchored by a Harris Teeter grocery store—a "conservative" establishment, according to Experian—with a Starbucks. The former post office is a health-food store; the Tastee-Freez is a Mediterranean restaurant. More than 40 wineries and two microbreweries have opened.
 

Purcellville Mayor Robert Lazaro, Jr., a lifelong Republican, backs his town's development, voicing more concern over building the commercial tax base than GOP voting rolls. He supports more dense housing downtown.

 

Mr. Lazaro is from Long Island, which saw the same demographic and political changes during the 1970s and 80s that Loudoun County is now experiencing. The mayor doesn't care if the city-dwellers discovering Purcellville are Democrats or Republicans, he said, "as long as they bring their money."