Outlook Dimming for Democrats

From The Wall Street Journal:

Citing the bad economy, President Barack Obama's unpopularity and a generally sour mood among voters, pollsters and nonpartisan analysts have recently downgraded the prospects for Democratic incumbents in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio and other states.

Among those seats now regarded as up for grabs are more than a dozen—including [Georgia's Rep. Jim] Marshall's—that analysts from both parties saw as safe as recently as June.

The Cook Political Report, a newsletter that tracks congressional races, now lists 68 Democratic House seats as being at "substantial risk," up from 62 in July and 58 in June, and the group plans to raise the figure to more than 70 this week. Other pollsters and analysts have also increased their list of Democrats they now consider imperiled. By comparison, less than 10 Republican-held seats are thought to be in jeopardy.

The Republicans, who are scrambling to decide where to devote their resources to maximize their gains, need to add 39 currently Democratic seats to take over the House. The new seats, and retaining a vacant seat firmly in Republican territory, would give the party a majority of 218.

[S]igns of a Republican tide are growing.

A daily Gallup tracking poll last week found voters preferred Republicans over Democrats for Congress by 51% to 41%, the widest margin Gallup has ever recorded. Republicans are also touting unusually high GOP turnouts among primary voters in contested districts this year, another sign that voter enthusiasm favors the Republicans.

At the same time, support for some of the Democrats' signature issues, particularly the sweeping health-care legislation passed earlier this year, appears to be waning. Support for the health overhaul dipped to 43% in August, the weakest support since May, according to the Kaiser Health Tracking Poll.

The result is deteriorating prospects for many Democratic incumbents.