Some interesting numbers and a good article and analysis on the Barnes and Deal race

Aaron Gould Sheinin reports the following in the ajc:

Much has been made of the fact that 680,000 voters cast ballots in the GOP primary, compared with only 395,000 in the Democratic contest, despite there being seven candidates running on each side. But Barnes actually took more votes on July 20 than Deal: 259,000 to 156,000. Deal, however, took 291,000 votes in the runoff.

Barnes has spent much of his time since the primary in South Georgia, where Sonny Perdue swamped him in his failed 2002 bid for re-election. The only counties Barnes lost in the primary were Laurens and Johnson, both southeast of Macon.

Deal can count on his former congressional district in North Georgia, as well as northern Atlanta exurbs such as Cherokee County, to deliver him a pile of votes. Barnes can count on DeKalb, Fulton, Clayton and a good bit of Cobb to drive his totals.

Deal, too, will work communities at the southern end of the state. He, arguably, has more work to do there. In the primary, he captured only a handful of counties in Middle and South Georgia. In the head-to-head runoff, he improved but still lost nearly every border county below I-20 to Karen Handel.

Party support and strength

This could be Barnes’ biggest liability. In the eight years since Barnes lost the governor’s office in 2002, the state has only grown more conservative, more Republican. It’s an obvious advantage for Deal. Barnes must hope that the gains Democrats made in voter registration in 2008 have been followed up by building the infrastructure needed to motivate those voters and get them to the polls. Georgia voters, however, seem even more upset with national Democrats than those in other red states. Republicans will continue to tie Barnes to President Barack Obama and other top Democrats. Barnes will continue to avoid discussing parties. As long as he keeps the polls close, he should be able to count on financial help from the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Governors Association.

For Deal, this could be his greatest asset. It’s not quite enough to simply have an “R” next to his name, but it’s a major advantage. The Republican Governors Association will likely play a big role, as the RGA executive director, Nick Ayers, is a former Perdue aide. Georgia’s GOP suffered a brutal primary and runoff campaign. If it truly unites behind Deal, it will be difficult to beat. If hard feelings persist, however, Deal will have to work that much harder.

Liabilities

Barnes began his campaign by acknowledging his shortcomings as governor. He didn’t listen enough, particularly to teachers, he said. He apologized then and again on the campaign trail. But his fight with teachers during his original term has continued to be used against him. Will teachers, a consistently reliable Democratic bloc, come back to him? Then, of course, there’s the fact that he’s a Democrat running in a Republican state. (See above).

Deal’s greatest stumbling block will be over ethics. He has been dogged by allegations, first reported by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, that Deal used his office and staff to influence state leaders to protect a state program that earned him thousands of dollars a year. The AJC’s report led to more negative news for Deal, as well as a scathing congressional ethics report, and the newspaper last month reported that a federal grand jury had subpoenaed a state official for testimony and documents related to the case. Deal has also been criticized by some for questioning Obama’s nationality.