Florida governor Crist goes from GOP leading light to party pariah

Once considered a shoo-in as the next U.S. senator from Florida, Crist's moderate views have made him a target for "tea party" activists and the GOP's right wing.

From The Washington Post:

Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, once regarded as a shoo-in to become Florida's next senator, waded into a milling crowd. If his campaign had been going according to plan, the audience here would have been perfect: an elderly, largely conservative throng that included 82-year-old Bob Gammon, who had voted for Crist before and now had a beer in hand and something he wanted to say.

Crist smiled and put a campaign sticker on Gammon's Hawaiian shirt.

"That hug," Gammon said.

"Oh," Crist said, immediately understanding what Gammon meant. Shortly after Barack Obama's inauguration, the new president had come to Florida to pledge federal help for this economically reeling state -- and Crist had reacted by embracing Obama on stage. "I wish you hadn't hugged him," Gammon said.

"I'm glad I did," Crist said calmly, smoothing the sticker on Gammon's shirt. "He was visiting our state. He's the president. I respect the office."

"I really wish you hadn't," Gammon said. As he moved away, leaving Crist to answer more questions about the hug, Gammon predicted the outcome of the August Republican primary: "He can't win."

If you're Charlie Crist, this is what a political freefall feels like. One day it is 2008, and you're a popular governor whose Republican admirers are talking you up for the veep spot on your party's national ticket. Then, suddenly, you've infuriated party conservatives, what you're being fitted for is a political coffin, and you're deciding whether to leave the GOP and run as an independent.

According to polls, Crist was once ahead by about 30 points in a primary contest widely viewed as a certain rout, a steppingstone toward a bigger national stage and a White House run. Now, targeted for extinction by "tea party" activists and the right wing of his party, he is behind by more than 20 points to challenger Marco Rubio.

It is yet another reminder of the intraparty dangers awaiting candidates viewed as not conservative enough. From Arizona, where Sen. John McCain faces a tough primary race, to Texas, where Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison failed in her bid to unseat Gov. Rick Perry, Republicans are also facing an anti-establishment fervor that is threatening once-popular political veterans.

Despite his disavowals, speculation persists that Crist might abandon the Republican primary to run as an independent -- the deadline to do it is April 30 -- or drop out of the race.

Last week, Crist freshly infuriated Florida conservatives. He voiced uncertainty about a high-profile educational measure that Bush and other Florida conservatives have championed and that Crist once lauded: a state bill designed to tie teacher pay largely to student test scores and to bar tenure for newly hired teachers.

The Florida Legislature had approved the bill, and it needed only Crist's signature to become law. But with teachers furiously protesting the measure, Crist suddenly expressed concerns, particularly over how the bill might affect the jobs of teachers instructing disabled children and others with special needs. He said he needed a week to ponder the matter.

He eventually vetoed the bill.

Given Crist's history as a winner and Rubio's untested strength statewide, few analysts are willing to count Crist out. If he launches an independent candidacy, he would be a formidable candidate, according to a Quinnipiac poll.

Ahead of him in the next week would be his controversial veto, which would be seen as more evidence of a looming independent candidacy. Ahead also would be an angry backlash from onetime Republican friends, including the abrupt resignation on Thursday of his campaign chairman, former senator Connie Mack, who had mentored Crist since his start in GOP politics.