Democrats slip but still dominate in party affiliation

From The Washington Post:

New data out of Gallup shows that Democratic party affiliation has shrunk in 39 states over the past year but the party still retains a considerable edge in the overall partisan makeup of the country.

The Democratic edge has narrowed by five points or more in 14 states, according to the numbers, which take a year's worth of daily tracking polls to produce their results, released today by Gallup.

The biggest shrinkage -- with apologies to George Costanza -- came in Ohio where Democrats had an 18-point self-identification advantage in 2008 and just a 10-point margin in 2009.

That erosion should be of serious concern to Democrats as the Buckeye State will play host to a very competitive governor's race as well as an open seat Senate contest this fall.

Other states with significant losses in terms of Democratic affiliation advantages included: Hawaii (a seven point Democratic decline), Louisiana (-7), Montana (-7), Iowa (-6), Maine (-6), Vermont (-6), and Wisconsin (-6).

Massachusetts, the state that shook the political world when it sent Sen-elect Scott Brown (R) to a victory in a Jan. 19 special election, saw Democrats' affiliation edge slip by five points between 2008 and 2009.

While Democrats saw their party ID leads shrink, they generally maintained their edge in party affiliation numbers in the states.

Twenty three states were ranked by Gallup as solidly Democratic -- meaning Democrats had a party affiliation edge of ten or more points -- while just four states were scored as solidly Republican. Ten states were ranked as Democratic leaning (a Democratic affiliation advantage of between five and ten points) while just a single Republican state fell into that category.

Count it up and you have 33 states where Democrats have a five point (or higher) party affiliation advantage compared to just five states where Republicans' ID edge is greater than five points.

A look at the 12 so-called swing states -- neither party with an affiliation edge of five or more points -- in the Gallup data shows the limits of using party affiliation alone to determine competitiveness.

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) carried every one of the dozen "swing" states in the Gallup data and he won half of them by double digits. Why, then would they be seen as competitive in terms of party affiliation? Because in nearly every one of the states -- particularly those in the South -- there are large numbers of voters who identify as Democrats but who vote strongly Republican. That's how a state like Oklahoma, which went for McCain by 22 points in 2008, could have a single-point affiliation advantage for Democrats.

Take the numbers above then cum grano salis. But, viewed broadly -- as its best to look at data like this -- the Gallup data seems to provide evidence that despite the significant political shift toward Republicans in the last year (or so) Democrats continue to hold a built-in advantage heading into the next national election in 2012.

The trend line, however, is clearly moving in the wrong direction for Democrats -- an erosion that, if it continues, could hamstring President Barack Obama as he prepares to seek a second term in 2012.