Standoff in Iran Deepens With New Show of Force -- Westerners & the reformers must have no illusions about the bullets & barrels they are up against.

Mir Hussein Moussavi

A 6-21-09 post noted the following by Tom Friedman:

Recall that in 1979, when the Iranian people rose up against the shah of Iran in an Islamic Revolution spearheaded by Ayatollah Khomeini, the shah controlled the army, the Savak secret police and a vast network of oil-funded patronage. But at some point, enough people taking to the streets and defying his authority, and taking bullets as well, broke the shah’s spell. All the shah’s horses and all the shah’s men, couldn’t put his regime back together again.

[The leader of the current counter-revolution Mr. Moussavi] surely is less liberal than most of his followers. But just his lighter shade of black attracted and unleashed so much pent-up frustration and hope for change among many Iranians that he became an independent candidate and, thus, his votes simply could not be counted — because they were not just a vote for him, but were a referendum against the entire regime.

And so the gauntlet is now thrown down. If the reformers want change, they are going to have to form a leadership, lay out their vision for Iran and keep voting in the streets — over and over and over. Only if they keep showing up with their bodies, and by so doing saying to their regime “we cannot be bought and we will not be cowed,” will their ballots be made to count.

I am rooting for them and fearing for them. Any real moderation of Iran’s leadership would have a hugely positive effect on the Middle East. But we and the reformers must have no illusions about the bullets and barrels they are up against.

From today's The New York Times:

Iranian authorities sent police officers into the streets to deter protests on Friday as Mir Hussein Moussavi, the principal opposition leader, said in a statement that he did not fear giving his life as “a martyr.”

The continuing show of force in the capital and Mr. Moussavi’s declaration, in which he said that even killing him would not end the unrest, were part of a day of charges, countercharges and warnings from both sides, illustrating the deep divisions that have emerged since Iran’s political crisis began six months ago.

The government and its hard-line supporters continued to rely on force, and the threat of force, to quell protests and demand loyalty, while the opposition refused to back down. There was no indication that compromise was on the agenda.

Mr. Moussavi’s nephew, Ali Moussavi, was killed during clashes on Sunday in what the opposition says was a government-sanctioned assassination.

Iran has been locked in conflict since its disputed presidential election in June, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared a landslide victory. That led to widespread protests charging fraud, and the government responded with a crackdown. Since then, Iran has been caught in an increasingly hostile stalemate.

“The reform movement won’t die, but it also can’t unite,” said an Iran expert who said he needed to remain anonymous to maintain relations with officials inside Iran. “The regime retains control, but can’t put out the opposition. So it’s a seesaw battle.”

Both sides have stuck with established strategies. The opposition continues to take advantage of public holidays and religious observances as an opportunity to protest. The government, meanwhile, has tried to transform itself into a more efficient police state with efforts to professionalize the pro-government Basij militia, for example.

Last Sunday, those two strategies exploded when tens of thousands protested in the streets during the Ashura holiday, chanting slogans calling for the death of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The authorities allowed security forces to fire into crowds of civilians; at least eight people were killed.

“In terms of longevity, this could go on for some time, but could also unravel quite quickly if the government loses its nerve,” said Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “In this respect Khamenei is the key. He’s the equivalent of the shah and is similarly weak.”

Iran analysts said they were bracing for the next potential showdown on Feb. 11, the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 revolution.