It's rather rare, but the Cracker Squire disagrees with the Dean on something of importance to the Empire State of the South; & (2) Gov. Kingston?

Today Bill Shipp, Georgia's Dean of Politics and Journalism who has forgotten more Georgia political history than most of us even know, has an interesting column on Georgia's 2010 gubernatorial race that you will not want to miss.

I agree with several points made therein, but disagree with one important one. Such points and my reaction follow, Shipp's statements being in italics and my reactions in bold.

The run-up to the election for governor next year is beginning to feel like a replay of 1998. Agree.

Four years later, Barnes ran a milquetoast re-election campaign . . . . Agree.

Former Gov. Barnes . . . is expected to announce for governor shortly. The optimist in me says I agree. The realist says while I hope so, probably no one -- including Roy and Marie Barnes -- knows for sure sure. But I sure hope Shipp is right. I believe the odds are high, much, much higher, than they were two months ago. But not 100% quite yet.

A solid Republican candidate would seem a shoo-in to win. Despite Gov. Perdue's weak record and poor performance, Georgia is a very red state. A conservative with a decent reputation and passable moral standards (say, Cobb Commission Chairman Sam Olens) ought to waltz into the Capitol after weathering a mean primary with a dozen Republicans chasing the prize. Disagree. No way Dean. The only way a Republican candidate would have a big advantage is if Barnes does not run. If Barnes runs, Barnes is our next governor.
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Today Jim Wooten writes in the AJC:

U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, whose 3rd Congressional District extends from metro Atlanta to the Columbus area, is rethinking an earlier decision to remain in Congress. “When this came about [Lt. Gov. Cagle dropping out for health reasons], I started getting phone calls saying ‘you need to reconsider,’ ” said Westmoreland, a strong conservative who served as minority leader in the Georgia House, a leadership post he resigned in 2003 to run for Congress. He was elected in 2004. His district is solidly Republican and he wins there handily.

Westmoreland will take his time making a decision—- though the landscape is such that all serious candidates will be declared by the GOP state convention that starts May 15 in Savannah. “I just don’t want to get sucked into things that are not really real,” he says of the phone calls.

Since 57 percent of the vote is now in the 28-county metro Atlanta area, a congressman from the other Georgia -- 1st District U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston of Savannah, for example -- has to weigh seriously whether it’s possible to gain the name recognition to be a major candidate in metro Atlanta.

For politicians, timing is often everything. The woods are filled with those who wanted to be governor -- and never felt comfortable that the time was right to plunge in.

Forget where the votes are (and not saying this isn't important, very important). I think there is a 50-50 chance that if Westmoreland opts to stay in Congress, Kingston will be willingly pushed into seriously considering making a run for governor. As is the case with Barnes, he has been on his own listening tour.