Martin vs. Jones on August 5.

Well, I called the primary correctly: Vernon first, Martin second, and the impact of the unusual endorsements for Knight insignificant.

Aaron Gould Sheinin has been on fire lately filling in for Jim Galloway in the AJC's Political Insider, and had a good post yesterday on Cardwell's endorsement of Martin.

Today Aaron has an article in the AJC that discusses Vernon's 40% vs. 34% edge over Martin in the primary, and notes the following about the August 5 runoff:

Turnout in runoffs is historically dismal.

And historically, the top vote getter in a primary wins the runoff 70 percent of the time, said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, who has authored a book about runoff elections.

Besides the two rules of turnout being low and the first-place finisher usually prevailing in runoffs, Aaron could have added a third: blacks historically have not returned to the polls in runoffs as heavily as whites.

My take. Throw out the usual rules for runoffs other than the one that turnout will indeed be light. For the other two rules, although this runoff has a black candidate in Vernon, he got what he was going to get in the primary. I think Martin will prevail on August 5.