Today's Dem. primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island look set to finally decide the party's presidential nomination. Unless they don't.

The polls close in Texas and Rhode at 9:00 p.m Eastern time (although the separate caucuses in Texas will then begin).

The polls close in Vermont at 7:00 Eastern time, and Ohioans will vote until 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.

What I will be focused on tonight:

According to The New York Times:

In many elections, the first precincts reporting vote totals do not mean much, because the totals bear little relation to the ultimate outcome. But the first returns in Texas, where all polls will close by 9 p.m. Eastern time, may count a lot.

That is because they will represent “early voting” from before Election Day, a segment that the Clinton campaign considers crucial to its hopes.

Early voting could make up a third of the turnout.

And according to The Cincinnati Enquirer:

The push by both the Obama and Clinton campaigns to get people to vote early – either by mail or at their boards of election – will produce a record number of absentee ballots, which will be the first results you will see posted tonight.

A big lead in the absentee votes by one candidate or the other will say a lot about that candidate’s ability to organize and might be a good indication of how the night will go.

(The title for this post came from The Wall Street Journal Online.)