McCain-Obama Race Could Redraw Electoral Map and Put South in Play

[NOTE: Gray, not black, represents Close Contest above]

From The Wall Street Journal:

In recent presidential elections, the electoral map largely has been fixed, with certain regions predictably loyal to one party or another and the competition narrowed to fewer than 20 battleground states.

But Barack Obama's success in rallying African-Americans and John McCain's difficulty with conservative evangelicals raise an intriguing question: Would a general election between the two put additional states -- particularly in the South -- into play?

If Mr. Obama wins the nomination, it is far from certain that he could claim even a single Southern state. But even making the race there competitive would be a victory of sorts by forcing Mr. McCain to spend time and money defending states that other Republicans, including President Bush, were able to take for granted.

"It's certainly likely some of these Southern states are going to be much more competitive than before," said Merle Black, an expert on Southern politics at Emory University.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to make inroads in the South was Bill Clinton. Together with Al Gore, he picked up their home states of Arkansas and Tennessee, plus Kentucky, Louisiana and, in 1992 only, Georgia. But Mr. Gore running in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were shut out.

This year, political strategists say Virginia, which already is trending Democratic, could be pushed across the line. Other possibilities include North Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Mr. McCain, the senator from Arizona, has an uphill climb with evangelical Christians and other conservatives who make up much of the base of his party.

On the other hand, Mr. McCain might enter a race versus Mr. Obama with an advantage among Hispanic voters. During the primaries so far, Mr. McCain has done well with Hispanics, while Mr. Obama has not.

Analyst Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report was more skeptical of the idea that Mr. Obama could contend in the South, especially in states such as Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. "White voters in Mississippi don't vote Democratic. They just don't," said Mr. Cook. He also believes that the greater the black turnout, the more anti-Democratic white voters become. Possible exceptions include Florida and Virginia.