Ga.'s primary date is important -- 2008 marks the first time since 1952 that neither an incumbent president nor vice president will be on a ballot.

Although the Georgia House has voted to change the date of Georgia's presidential primary next year to February 5 from March 5, joining with many other states in a mega-primary (the vote also changes the threshold necessary to avoid a runoff in primary and general elections from the current 50% to 45%), I agree with Bill Shipp that it will be better for Georgia if the date is left on March 5.

Bill Shipp writes:

If the cards fall right, Georgia could be the center of attention by providing somebody's campaign with momentum and a nice bundle of convention delegates. We could also receive priceless national exposure on who we are, why our votes count and how beautiful and hospitable our state is. Plus, there's a whole lot of spending going on in the important primary states. Notice I said "important." Georgia could also get lost in the shuffle and wind up ignored.

Let's look at the calendar and some possible scenarios:

January: Iowa and Nevada will conduct caucuses. New Hampshire and South Carolina will hold primaries, and the race is on. Republican and Democratic national committee rules ban Georgia and other states from joining the January kickoffs.

Feb. 5: More than 20 states, including delegate-fat California and Florida, are planning primaries for 2008's Super Tuesday. Not all states have formalized the date, but many, including Georgia, seem headed in that direction. More than half the delegates will be chosen.

If Georgia decides to join the Super Tuesday throng, the Peach State can forget about making a splash. Candidates will concentrate on the big states (Florida and California) to capture sizable delegate blocs. They also will focus on smaller states (Delaware and Utah), which can be won with the least amount of money. The middle-sized states such as Georgia will be left out. Don't believe me? Take a look at the 1988 primary season and a race without an incumbent president running. Democrats and Republicans zeroed in on states like Florida and Texas and all but snubbed Georgia.

Feb. 26: This is the ideal date . . . . Candidates would have spent two weeks working the state in person and on TV and the Internet. Both parties in Georgia offer a decent number of convention delegates - enough that could make or break a donkey or an elephant.

March 5: Our primary is currently set for this date, which might turn out to be a good day, but we'll never know. Great minds in the General Assembly are determined to change it.

Of course, the nominations could be decided on Feb. 5. Only a bit of mopping up would remain. If that occurs, whether Georgia moves its date won't matter. On the other hand, if the nominating game is still going after Super Tuesday, the process could run right into the summer conventions.

A likely story line goes like this: Two or three candidates will emerge from Super Tuesday with hefty delegate numbers, but no one will be close to a majority. This is especially true for Democrats, whose rules mandate proportional delegate selection. Conceivably, a Democrat could win a state but only pick up a few more delegates than the second- and third-place finishers. The GOP holds winner-take-all primaries, which makes life simpler but less thrilling.