Future of Orthodox Jewish Vote Has Implications for GOP -- Small but Growing Group Receptive to Republican Ideas
According to The Washington Post:
Republicans are hoping a strong defense of Israel translates into greater support among Jewish voters this fall, but the biggest political benefits are likely to come long after the 2006 campaign concludes, according to political and demographic experts studying Jewish voting trends.
The Jewish group proving most receptive to Republican overtures over the past decade is among the smallest: Orthodox Jews. Right now, they account for roughly 10 percent of the estimated 5.3 million Jews in the United States, hardly enough to tip most elections.
This is likely to change significantly in the years ahead because Orthodox Jews are the fastest-growing segment of the Jewish population, raising the possibility that one of the most reliable Democratic voting blocs will be increasingly in play in future elections, according to surveys of Jewish voting and religious and social habits.
"The likelihood is there will be a very quick jump in the number of orthodox as the baby boomers age and die," said David A. Harris of the American Jewish Committee, a nonpartisan organization that conducts an annual survey of Jews. "They will be increasingly replaced by Orthodox children who are more" in line with Republicans.
Researchers commissioned by the American Jewish Committee found that the group most receptive to the GOP message is Orthodox Jews. They are much more likely to base their political decisions on a candidate's view on Israel than other Jews, researchers have found.
In many ways, their views are in sync with those of Christians who attend church regularly, which is one of the most reliable indicators of how a person votes in politics today. The more frequently a person attends church or synagogue, the more likely he or she is to vote Republican, polls show.
"If you [as a candidate] are not a very strong supporter of Israel, you are disqualified" from getting much, if any, of the Jewish vote, said Steve Rabinowitz, a Democratic strategist. "Once you reach that threshold, for the vast majority of the Jewish community, it switches to domestic issues on which Republicans routinely get killed."
Bush has made small gains among Jews since his first election, but short of what some GOP strategists had envisioned. A staunch supporter of Israel who won the backing of a few prominent Democratic Jews such as former New York City mayor Ed Koch, Bush captured between 22 and 26 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004, based on various exit polling surveys. In 2000, he won 19 percent.
Because there are only about a half-million Orthodox Jews, it is virtually impossible for pollsters to collect a large enough sample to determine their precise voting patterns. But several who have studied the issue estimate that Bush won a strong majority of Orthodox Jewish votes in 2004, a reversal from 2000 when Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), an Orthodox Jew, was running on the national Democratic ticket.
One trend Democrats and Republicans agree on is that older Jews are voting almost 9 to 1 for Democrats and are unlikely to change their views.
"The single most hostile [Jewish] community to Republicans is the 70-and-older community," said Matthew Brooks, of the Republican Jewish Coalition. "That segment will not be part of the electorate going forward much longer."
Republicans are hoping a strong defense of Israel translates into greater support among Jewish voters this fall, but the biggest political benefits are likely to come long after the 2006 campaign concludes, according to political and demographic experts studying Jewish voting trends.
The Jewish group proving most receptive to Republican overtures over the past decade is among the smallest: Orthodox Jews. Right now, they account for roughly 10 percent of the estimated 5.3 million Jews in the United States, hardly enough to tip most elections.
This is likely to change significantly in the years ahead because Orthodox Jews are the fastest-growing segment of the Jewish population, raising the possibility that one of the most reliable Democratic voting blocs will be increasingly in play in future elections, according to surveys of Jewish voting and religious and social habits.
"The likelihood is there will be a very quick jump in the number of orthodox as the baby boomers age and die," said David A. Harris of the American Jewish Committee, a nonpartisan organization that conducts an annual survey of Jews. "They will be increasingly replaced by Orthodox children who are more" in line with Republicans.
Researchers commissioned by the American Jewish Committee found that the group most receptive to the GOP message is Orthodox Jews. They are much more likely to base their political decisions on a candidate's view on Israel than other Jews, researchers have found.
In many ways, their views are in sync with those of Christians who attend church regularly, which is one of the most reliable indicators of how a person votes in politics today. The more frequently a person attends church or synagogue, the more likely he or she is to vote Republican, polls show.
"If you [as a candidate] are not a very strong supporter of Israel, you are disqualified" from getting much, if any, of the Jewish vote, said Steve Rabinowitz, a Democratic strategist. "Once you reach that threshold, for the vast majority of the Jewish community, it switches to domestic issues on which Republicans routinely get killed."
Bush has made small gains among Jews since his first election, but short of what some GOP strategists had envisioned. A staunch supporter of Israel who won the backing of a few prominent Democratic Jews such as former New York City mayor Ed Koch, Bush captured between 22 and 26 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004, based on various exit polling surveys. In 2000, he won 19 percent.
Because there are only about a half-million Orthodox Jews, it is virtually impossible for pollsters to collect a large enough sample to determine their precise voting patterns. But several who have studied the issue estimate that Bush won a strong majority of Orthodox Jewish votes in 2004, a reversal from 2000 when Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), an Orthodox Jew, was running on the national Democratic ticket.
One trend Democrats and Republicans agree on is that older Jews are voting almost 9 to 1 for Democrats and are unlikely to change their views.
"The single most hostile [Jewish] community to Republicans is the 70-and-older community," said Matthew Brooks, of the Republican Jewish Coalition. "That segment will not be part of the electorate going forward much longer."
posted by Sid Cottingham | 9:14 AM
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