Shipp: Primary could doom Democrats in Georgia's governor's race

Bill Shipp writes:

Morton Brilliant sounds like the name of a superhero in a comic book designed for brainy kids.

In real life, Morton Brilliant manages Cathy Cox's campaign for governor. Whether the nationally known Democratic consultant can live up to his name is about to be tested.

Rick Dent, a veteran of both Democratic and Republican campaigns, handles Mark Taylor's campaign chores.

Dent and Brilliant face the daunting task of directing their candidates' strategies for the party primary to determine Gov. Sonny Perdue's challenger in the 2006 election.

On paper, either Democratic candidate appears to have a fighting chance of unseating the state's first modern-era Republican governor. Polls suggest any statewide Democratic candidate, regardless of competence or qualifications, has 40 percent of the vote safely in tow when the polls open. The Democratic nominee's foremost challenge is finding the additional 5 percent needed for a winning plurality.

In reality, the political variables are so numerous that either Cox or Taylor must be considered a long shot against a passive incumbent.

A vicious primary battle could leave the Democratic candidate so battered and discredited that the party's nomination would not be worth having. Gov. Perdue, presently unopposed in the primary, could waltz to a second term in the Nov. 7, 2006, election.

State Democratic chairman Bobby Kahn says, predictably, that unity will prevail after the primary. "Mark's supporters will help Cathy, and Cathy's people will go for Mark, depending on who wins the primary. Democrats are unified in their dedication to defeating Perdue," Kahn contends.

Both Democrats are raising hefty campaign war chests, which mean the airwaves will be loaded with Cox and Taylor commercials next spring. The runners are noted for waging effective media campaigns.

However, the first skirmish may be fought beyond the TV lights.
Successfully wooing African-American leaders to influence the black vote is the key to a Democratic primary victory. Black voters are expected to account for slightly more than 50 percent of the ballots in the Democratic primary on July 18, 2006.

Cox has gained the endorsement of legendary UGA football star Herschel Walker, who has wide appeal among whites as well as blacks.

Taylor counts among his enthusiastic supporters former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young and, perhaps more important, Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney.

Though the controversial McKinney is widely disliked in the conservative white community, she has shown an almost magical touch in turning out the black vote, especially in densely populated south DeKalb County.

McKinney's turnout talents were crucial to Gov. Zell Miller's election victories in the 1990s. Without McKinney's help with DeKalb County voters, the Georgia lottery referendum - Miller's main campaign theme - would have failed in 1992.

Watching Taylor and Cox maneuver to sew up the black vote, without alienating white supporters, should be fascinating.

Then there's the immigration problem. How will the candidates treat that potential bombshell in their primary campaigns? Nonaligned pollsters say illegal immigration is an issue that resonates across racial and political lines. Just about everybody wants something done about it.

Ranking Republicans stand accused of permitting and even encouraging illegal immigration to help their big-business allies. Nevertheless, some Democrats (and local Republicans, too) are loath to join the anti-immigration cause. They are fearful the issue, especially at the state level, may morph into a magnet for extremists.

Taylor and Cox will have to walk a fine line to prevent immigration from becoming a lose-lose campaign issue.

Supporters of both candidates find perverse hope in the Democratic ballot numbers from the 2004 election, when their party fielded the weakest slate of candidates in memory. Wishy-washy Sen. John Kerry won 41 percent of the Georgia vote against President Bush. In the race for the U.S. Senate, Denise Majette, claiming to receive political advice directly from God, managed to win four out of 10 ballots (1.3 million votes) against Johnny Isakson, a well-known and popular Republican.

Next year, state Democrats believe they can recapture the governor's seat by attracting angry independent voters and even some disillusioned Republicans - if Morton Brilliant and Rick Dent can help Cox and Taylor avoid mutual destruction in the midsummer primary.