If Dem. Party can't mount a challenge against weak incumbent in '06, it will have trouble with fundraising & recruiting candidates in the future.
Excerpts from:
Both parties' futures hinge on '06 races
By Jay Bookman
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
March 28, 2005
[T]he 2006 campaign . . . will tell us a lot about the future of both the Republican and Democratic parties in Georgia.
The race to watch in the Republican Party is the primary contest for lieutenant governor between former Christian Coalition leader Ralph Reed, who is making his first foray into electoral politics as a candidate, and state Sen. Casey Cagle of Gainesville, who in his time in the Legislature has pursued a bluntly aggressive course on behalf of developers and other business interests.
The entry of Reed, with his fame and presumed ability to raise a lot of money, has already scared state Sen. Bill Stephens out of the primary and into the safer race for secretary of state. It also sent another hopeful, John Oxendine, scuttling back to his current job as insurance commissioner, a low-profile post that would offer most people little potential for embarrassing themselves. But with his antics with state cars and sirens, and his desperate search for the TV lights, Oxendine has milked that limited potential for all it is worth. [Amen on the latter about Oxendine Brother Bookman.]
Cagle's hopes depend on tapping into a significant anti-Reed sentiment, and there's no question that it does exist. The question for Cagle is whether enough of those voters will show up in the Republican primary, and whether Reed's involvement in the growing scandal in Washington over Indian casinos will further tarnish his reputation. With so much of his political appeal tied to his Christian image, such allegations could be more damaging to Reed than to a more typical candidate.
A Reed victory, on the other hand, also would be viewed as a victory for the Christian conservative contingent in the state party, and it would set him up perfectly for a run for governor in 2010. It would make Reed the most prominent figure in state politics, overshadowing whoever happens to be governor in the next four years. It could also be the stepping stone to even bigger things beyond.
Among Democrats, the critical primary contest pits Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor against Secretary of State Cathy Cox for the right to run against Gov. Sonny Perdue. Taylor and Cox are both seasoned, smart politicians who have been targeting this race for years, and in Perdue they have an incumbent who hasn't exactly set the world afire. The best that can be said of him is that he has set exceedingly modest goals as governor, and on occasion came close to meeting them.
Given that situation, the 2006 governor's race will tell us a lot about the future of the Democratic Party in Georgia. The days of its dominance are long over; what remains to be determined is whether it is still capable of mounting a serious challenge under the right conditions, or whether it will soon become as ineffectual as the Republicans were for so long.
If Democrats can't beat Perdue next year, or at least make it a tough race that is settled by no more than 2 percentage points or 3 percentage points, it's hard to see how they can turn things around.
More specifically, if the party can't mount a challenge against a weak incumbent with the likes of Taylor or Cox on the ballot, its candidates will have a harder time in the future convincing donors to contribute to their races. The party also won't be able to attract ambitious young talent to its ranks. They will either go into some other line of work or run as Republicans.
Already, that pipeline of talent is running dry, as demonstrated by the party's inability to put up a strong candidate against Johnny Isakson for an open U.S. Senate seat last year. If that is followed by a less-than-credible showing for the state's top political job in '06, the Democrats will no longer pose a viable threat to the Republicans.
And without a viable opposition party, the party in power has no check on its worst impulses. As events in Washington demonstrate all too well, that can have enormous consequences.
Both parties' futures hinge on '06 races
By Jay Bookman
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
March 28, 2005
[T]he 2006 campaign . . . will tell us a lot about the future of both the Republican and Democratic parties in Georgia.
The race to watch in the Republican Party is the primary contest for lieutenant governor between former Christian Coalition leader Ralph Reed, who is making his first foray into electoral politics as a candidate, and state Sen. Casey Cagle of Gainesville, who in his time in the Legislature has pursued a bluntly aggressive course on behalf of developers and other business interests.
The entry of Reed, with his fame and presumed ability to raise a lot of money, has already scared state Sen. Bill Stephens out of the primary and into the safer race for secretary of state. It also sent another hopeful, John Oxendine, scuttling back to his current job as insurance commissioner, a low-profile post that would offer most people little potential for embarrassing themselves. But with his antics with state cars and sirens, and his desperate search for the TV lights, Oxendine has milked that limited potential for all it is worth. [Amen on the latter about Oxendine Brother Bookman.]
Cagle's hopes depend on tapping into a significant anti-Reed sentiment, and there's no question that it does exist. The question for Cagle is whether enough of those voters will show up in the Republican primary, and whether Reed's involvement in the growing scandal in Washington over Indian casinos will further tarnish his reputation. With so much of his political appeal tied to his Christian image, such allegations could be more damaging to Reed than to a more typical candidate.
A Reed victory, on the other hand, also would be viewed as a victory for the Christian conservative contingent in the state party, and it would set him up perfectly for a run for governor in 2010. It would make Reed the most prominent figure in state politics, overshadowing whoever happens to be governor in the next four years. It could also be the stepping stone to even bigger things beyond.
Among Democrats, the critical primary contest pits Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor against Secretary of State Cathy Cox for the right to run against Gov. Sonny Perdue. Taylor and Cox are both seasoned, smart politicians who have been targeting this race for years, and in Perdue they have an incumbent who hasn't exactly set the world afire. The best that can be said of him is that he has set exceedingly modest goals as governor, and on occasion came close to meeting them.
Given that situation, the 2006 governor's race will tell us a lot about the future of the Democratic Party in Georgia. The days of its dominance are long over; what remains to be determined is whether it is still capable of mounting a serious challenge under the right conditions, or whether it will soon become as ineffectual as the Republicans were for so long.
If Democrats can't beat Perdue next year, or at least make it a tough race that is settled by no more than 2 percentage points or 3 percentage points, it's hard to see how they can turn things around.
More specifically, if the party can't mount a challenge against a weak incumbent with the likes of Taylor or Cox on the ballot, its candidates will have a harder time in the future convincing donors to contribute to their races. The party also won't be able to attract ambitious young talent to its ranks. They will either go into some other line of work or run as Republicans.
Already, that pipeline of talent is running dry, as demonstrated by the party's inability to put up a strong candidate against Johnny Isakson for an open U.S. Senate seat last year. If that is followed by a less-than-credible showing for the state's top political job in '06, the Democrats will no longer pose a viable threat to the Republicans.
And without a viable opposition party, the party in power has no check on its worst impulses. As events in Washington demonstrate all too well, that can have enormous consequences.
posted by Sid Cottingham | 6:30 AM
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