Despite recent endorsements & present momentum in his race to chair DNC, in Sid's opinion, Howard Dean doesn't have a prayer of ultimate success.

A 12-10-05 post notes:

"How to stop Howard Dean, Part Two

"The race to be the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee is shaping up as a retread of January’s Iowa caucuses, with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean emerging as the early front-runner and the Democratic establishment furiously scrambling for a candidate to beat him, according to senior Democratic strategists and consultants."

"But as in the Iowa caucuses, Dean and the anti-Dean foil could assure each other’s destruction, leaving the contest open to a lesser-known, second-tier compromise candidate, said Joe Andrew, a former DNC party chairman.

'"'It’s likely that one candidate will emerge as a counterweight to Governor Dean,' Andrews said."

What does the post from last night -- noting Dean's endorsement from the entire DNC delegation from Florida as well as the state Democratic chairs of Mississippi, Utah, Oklahoma, Washington state and Vermont -- lead one to conclude, that Dean has it in the bag?

Hardly. It means that with Dean's hard-charging race to head the DNC gaining momentum, the focus of the DNC race will become which of the other six candidates will become the acceptable alternative to Dean.

Thus Dean's hard-charging race to head the Democratic National Committee that is gaining early momentum recalls the streaking start of his 2004 presidential campaign.

At the present Dean plans house parties around the nation later this week, like the ones he used while trying to gain the Democratic presidential nomination.

Dean dominated the Democrats' presidential race through 2003, raising more than $40 million and recruiting thousands of supporters through the Internet.

But when the voting started in Iowa, Dean stumbled as Democrats rallied around a candidate they thought was more electable — Kerry.

Although Dean's six opponents for DNC chair are all capable party activists with many friends inside the party, they lack Dean's high profile and the organizational track record that revolutionized party politics in the presidential campaign.

Party veterans recognize this, and are attempting to decide who is going to be the anti-Dean candidate, that is, an acceptable alternative candidate as noted above.

In a 01-12-05 post entitled "The narrowed down list of DNC Chair candidates with any realistic hope of getting the job," my short list included Dean, Roemer, Frost and McAuliffe.

I have to update this shortlist to include Simon Rosenberg. He has been touting his abilities in fund-raising and devising ad campaigns. Rosenberg also has been collecting endorsements, including the backing of former DNC chair Joe Andrew and former Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi.

And forget my shortlist and make your own. Candidates competing to be the party establishment's alternative to Dean are:

• Simon Rosenberg, a shrewd party strategist who founded the centrist New Democrat Network and led an aggressive campaign to win Hispanic voters to support Democrats.

• Martin Frost, a former Texas congressman who led the Democrats' congressional campaign committee and raised $80 million over two election cycles.

[Especially since his endorsement by party heavy and veteran Democratic organizer Robert Strauss, I think Frost will emerge as the choice of the Southern bloc of DNC members -- make that the Southern bloc minus Florida with its Yankee taints. Being from the South is an additional advantage.]

• Tim Roemer, a former Indiana congressman and the most conservative of the group, who could win support of some moderate DNC members but is facing opposition from advocates of abortion rights.

• Wellington Webb, former mayor of Denver, who is the only black candidate and has long-standing ties within the Democratic Party.

• David Leland, a former Ohio Democratic chairman and veteran party activist who touted his success helping President Clinton win Ohio eight years ago.

• Fowler, an up-and-coming Democratic strategist and son of a former national chairman, with experience running campaigns in more than a dozen states.

A sign of nervousness within the party was the intense campaign by some within the party to recruit current Democratic Chairman Terry McAuliffe to stay in the position.

McAuliffe said the race is still very open.

The party holds two more weekend regional forums for the candidates — in Sacramento, Calif. and in New York before the vote in February.

"All the candidates are up there laying their plans out," McAuliffe said. "It's still wide open."

(Source for some of above from AP, 01-19-05.)
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A 01-18-05 post entitled "The Race for Chairman of DNC - Howard Dean: One year ago tomorrow came his third-place stumble in Iowa & the rant & scream & flameout that followed," has the following quote from a Washington Post article:

"It's hard not to wonder something a lot of hard-core Deaniacs keep wondering themselves:

"Why is Howard Dean here? Does he really want this job?

"Yes, Dean keeps saying, he really does want to succeed Terry McAuliffe as titular head of the Democratic Party."

Despite what Dean wants, and the recent endorsements and present momentum notwithstanding, my call: It won't be Howard Dean for chairman of the DNC. You can take it to the bank.