Expert panel says: (1) Ga. Demo's haven't hit bottom; & (2) Cox has the best chance to beat Perdue. -- Kahn sees some positives from Nov. 2 & for '06.

Excerpts from a story by Larry Peterson in the Savannah Morning News:

Political science panelists agree that the party has little chance of regaining control of the legislature any time soon.

[University of Georgia political science professor Charles] Bullock and two others who spoke Friday at the annual convention of the Georgia Political Science Association think things will get worse for the Democrats before they get better.

"The state legislature is a lost cause for the Democrats any time in the near future," he said, "The Democrats haven't hit bottom yet."

Not surprisingly state Democratic Chairman Bobby Kahn disagrees.

Kahn said his party will mount a major counteroffensive in 2006 and cited what he said were some bright spots on Nov. 2.

But the other convention panelists, political scientist Merle Black and Jim Wooten, associate editorial page editor at the Atlanta Journal Constitution, agreed with Bullock.

And they predicted that more Democrats, especially from rural areas, likely will switch to the GOP by the time the General Assembly reconvenes in January.

Black, who teaches at Emory University, said the Democratic coalition of rural whites, urban liberal whites and blacks already was coming apart.
"What kept them together," he said, "was that they had power. Now that is gone."

In Georgia, as elsewhere in the South, Democrats find it increasingly hard to attract white voters, Black said.

More than just race is involved, he added. For example, he said, the support of Democratic legislative leaders for quicker restoration of felons' voting rights is a non-starter for most Georgians.

Wooten said rural legislators fear the voting clout of urban legislators and are likely to defect in hopes of protecting their communities' interests.

"You can't be a legislator from rural Georgia and not be with the majority party," he said. "From their point of view, it's better to be way down at the far end of the table and still have a place at the table."

Rural Democrats in the State Senate already are jumping ship, Bullock said.

"You can take all the rural Democrats in the Senate and they can ride around in a Cooper Mini," he said.

Black and Bullock said the Democrats' only near-term comeback prospect is to win the governorship in 2006.

The professors agreed that Secretary of State Cathy Cox has the best chance of knocking off GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue, whom at least one statewide poll has concluded is vulnerable.

If Cox wins and holds the governorship in 2010, Bullock added, Democrats will have at least some influence over the way new legislative district boundaries are drawn in 2011. The party that controls that process usually has a leg up in legislative elections.

Democratic chairman Kahn said Perdue can be beaten because he has "a bad record as governor," having cut funding for schools, health care and HOPE scholarships.

And, even though his party lost seats in both houses Nov. 2, there has been good news, too, Kahn said.

Democrats beat three incumbent Republicans and three Democratic senators who switched to the GOP won't be returning to Atlanta. One lost in the primary, another lost Nov. 2 and the third opted not to seek re-election.

Kahn also cited the victory of Democrat John Barrow over freshman incumbent Max Burns in the 12th Congressional District, which takes in most of Savannah.

But Bullock noted that the 12th is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and that Burns won in 2002 against a weak Democratic foe.